The second round of the NHL Playoffs has started to take shape with the Islanders and Lightning clinching their respective series last night. We have our first Game 7 of the playoffs taking place Friday, as Minnesota defeated Vegas at home by a score of 3-0. Tonight, we have two more elimination games. Montreal travels to Toronto to try and save their season down 3-1. In the Central Division Playoffs, the Hurricanes look to close out the Predators in Nashville.
Montreal Canadians (+200) @ Toronto Maple Leafs (-240)
The Leafs opened this elimination game at -220/-230 favorites and have moved to -240. This is the largest moneyline that the Leafs have been offered at in this Series by forty/fifty cents. This line movement was pretty predicable as the Canadians have just looked lifeless the past few games. Every trend and stat point to Toronto in this game. The biggest issue for a bettor is trying to find value in this game, unless you’re comfortable laying that large of a price.
Jack Campbell is expected to start for the Leafs in net after playing well in the previous four games. Carey Price will most likely be in net for Montreal in this must win game.
Toronto has won three straight games in this series after dropping Game 1. Montreal has offered no support for Carey Price offensively. They’re averaging 1.0 goals per game and have an expected goal rate of 40.01%. Montreal’s powerplay has also gone 0-7 in the past 2 games. Their defensemen have a combined 0 points throughout the four games. Toronto’s offense on the other hand has thrived the past few games and has the second highest expected goal rate in the playoffs (59.99%). The Leafs have had goaltending issues in the past but, Jack Campbell seems to be the answer for that. He has a +4.2 GSAx in the playoffs so far and a 1.01 GAA. The combination of Toronto’s goaltending and Montreal’s lack of offense, I see some value on the under in this matchup.
Pick: Under 5.5, -130 (Risk 0.65 Units)
Carolina Hurricanes (-140) @ Nashville Predators (+120)
The Predators look to keep the trend alive of the home team winning every game in this series to for a Game 7. With both arena’s packed, the crowds are clearly having an impact. Carolina took the series lead in Game 5 with a Jordan Stall OT winner. The Canes opened at a -150 favorite for this game but the line has shifted in Nashville’s favor as they now sit at -140. The Hurricanes have gone off a similar price in the previous two games away.
Alex Nedeljkovic is the starter for Carolina as he has been in net for all of the prior games. Nashville doesn’t look like they’re switching things up either as Juuse Saros is the expected starter for them. Both of these goals have been slightly above average as they have similar Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).
The Canes have outplayed the Predators this series leading them with a 55.27 xGF% compared to Nashville’s 44.73 xGF%. I think Carolina has a slight edge here but not enough to lay -140 especially on the road given the previous games. Both teams have gotten support from their whole squads as 15 different skaters have tallied a point for each side. Nashville has the goaltending edge in this matchup, and is the main reason they’re still alive. The atmosphere in Nashville has been one of the best, if not they best in the playoffs so far. They’re increasing capacity again for Game 6, so it should be even crazier than it was. Like I said before, I have this game essentially as a toss up so I’ll take the home underdog to force a Game 7.
Pick: Nashville ml +120 (Risk 0.83 Units)
