Hi guys! My name is Patrick and I’ll be the new NHL Writer for TheOddsBreakers. The NHL season is winding down and with only a few games left for each team (besides Vancouver) the playoffs are starting to take shape. Today’s slate of games features a few interesting matchups, so lets break those games down.
Dallas Stars (+133) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-157)
The Dallas Stars travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Lightning with hopes of keeping their playoff chances alive. The Lightning have secured their spot in the playoffs but are in a battle of their own against the Hurricanes for first place in the Central Division.
The Stars enter this game on a 0-5 streak in their last 5 while Tampa Bay are red hot. The line for the Lighting is the shortest it’s been vs Dallas all year averaging -165 in previous matchups. The Bolts are expected to start A. Vasilevskiy who has a 6-1 record and 1.42 GAA vs the Stars this year. Dallas is expected to start Anton Khudobin who has not played well vs Tampa going 0-3 with a 3.04 GAA.
The Lightning have been dominate at home all season going 21-6. They are facing a Dallas team who’s on the ropes and has struggled on the road. The short line does worry me a bit, but I still think the Bolts handle the Stars.
Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning (-157), Risk 1.57 Units
Colorado Avalanche (-286) @ Los Angeles Kings (+235)
The Los Angeles Kings enter this game a record of 21-24-6 and their payoff chances on life support. The Av’s on the other hand, are in a battle for first in the Western Division with the Vegas Golden Knights.
The line for this game opened up around -260 for the Avalanche and has now moved to -290. In the previous two matchups, the line for the Avalanche closed at an average -230. Colorado is expected to start P. Grubauer who has a record of 27-9-1 with a 2.03 GAA and .920 SV%. When facing the Kings this season Grubauer is 3-0 with a 1.00 GAA. The Kings are expected to start C. Peterson who is 0-3 against the Avalanche giving up an average of 2.37 goals in those games.
Looking at this game, the one thing stands out to me is that when Colorado loses to an underdog with a moneyline of +200 or greater they have usually covered the puckline in the next game. The Avalanche dominate the Kings when it comes to comes to most of the basic categories including GPP, SPG, and PP%. In addition to basic stats, Colorado leads the league in xGF, Corsi %, and Fenwick %. With the Avalanche covering the puckline in the previous two matchups and them needing this game for playoff seeding, I think they get it done here again.
PICK: Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (-113), Risk 1.13 Units
