We have a massive slate tonight with twelve games taking place across the NHL. I’ll break down my picks and offer a few player props to target.
Pick(s):
- Vegas Golden Knights in Regulation (+100) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.25 to win 0.25 Units
We have a rematch of the 2018 Cup Final as the Golden Knights take on the Washington Capitals.
The Golden Knights have gone 8-2-0 to start the season under new head coach Bruce Cassidy. They’ll begin a four-game road trip tonight starting in the nation’s capital.
Washington has been plagued by injuries to start the season. They’ve gone 5-4-1 and lost last night to the Hurricanes 3-2 in a Shootout.
Vegas has looked strong in all areas but especially on defense. The Golden Knights lead the league in GA/G averaging just 1.7. Offensively, they rank 14th in GF/G and 4th in xG%. Logan Thompson has also stepped up and solidified himself as the permanent starter for this squad with a +5.1 GSAx through 6 games.
As I previously mentioned Washington has several key players injured including John Carlson and T.J. Oshie. Connor Brown, Nick Backstrom, and Tom Wilson are also out on IR. Washington ranks 22nd in GF/G but has been solid defensively ranking 10th in GA/G. Charlie Lindgren is expected to get the start for tonight who’s been great to start the year. In his two starts, he has a +3.3 GSAx.
This spot heavily favors the Golden Knights with the Capitals coming off a hard-fought battle against the Hurricanes last night. While Washington has been better at home, I believe Vegas can take this game on the road. I also like the over here. Vegas Golden Knights/ Over 6.5 is +215 on DraftKings, just saying.
- Boston Bruins/ Pittsburgh Penguins over 6.0 (-125) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.31 to win 0.25 Units
The Boston Bruins are currently tied for the most points in the NHL with the Golden Knights but have a game in hand. They’ve been red hot starting off the year 8-1 under new head coach Jim Montgomery.
Pittsburgh on the other hand has had a mediocre start going 4-4-1 through their first nine games. The good news for them is that they’ve been much better at home with a 3-0-0 record.
Boston currently ranks 1st in GF/G averaging 4.22, mainly thanks to David Pastrnak who’s averaging nearly two points per game. Brad Marchand has also returned to the lineup sooner than most expected tallying three points in his season debut. On the road, Boston improves offensively averaging 4.67 GF/G. While they only average 2.33 GA/G overall, away from home that number jumps up to 3.00.
Pittsburgh has also been good up front averaging 3.56 GF/G ranking 7th. Shockingly, Sidney Crosby leads their team in points but they’ve also had some depth production from Carter, Guentzel, Heinen, and Zucker. I mentioned this above but Pittsburgh has been much better at home where they average 6.00 GF/G.
Given each team’s home/away splits, I like the over here. While Ulmark has been great to start the year, I still believe Pittsburgh will be able to get a few by him. Jarry on the other hand has struggled in his six starts and will face the number one offense tonight.
- Edmonton Oilers in Regulation (-105) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.26 to win 0.25 Units
The Predators have had a bizarre start to their season. They played their first two games in Prague, where they won both against an inferior opponent. Since then, they’ve lost six of their last seven games.
Edmonton seems to be clicking on all cylinders at the moment and is coming off a 3-0 road trip where they defeated St. Louis, Chicago, and rival Calgary.
Nashville has struggled to produce offensively ranking 29th in GF/G averaging 2.44. On the road, that number drops to 2.33 GF/G. Defensively, they’re middle of the pack averaging 3.11 GA/G but away from home that number jumps to 4.00 GA/G.
Edmonton’s offense has been red hot lately and on the year averages 3.78 GF/G. That number slightly drops at home but is not large enough to warrant concern. Defensively, they’ve improved since the start of the year and average 3.11 GA/G.
Nashville relies heavily on Juuse Saro’s and when you combine his lackluster play with their inability to produce offensively, it’s not a great combination. Edmonton has looked more like the team we thought they would be and is getting depth production from their second and third lines up front. While goaltending remains an issue for the Oilers with Jack Campbell struggling, I still like the Oilers to put together a solid performance tonight and win at home.
Player Props to Target:
- Mika Zibanejad over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-135)
- He’s gone over this number in each of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.8 SOG and over 7 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. Philadelphia also ranks 30th in SOG Allowed per game.
- Jake DeBrusk over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-135)
- He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.8 SOG and 6 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. Pittsburgh also ranks 29th in SOG Allowed per game.
- Matthew Tkachuk over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-150)
- He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.6 SOG and over 8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. Arizona also ranks 31st in SOG Allowed per game.
- Vincent Trocheck over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-190)
- He’s gone over this number in each of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.2 SOG and over 7 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last five games. Philadelphia also ranks 30th in SOG Allowed per game.
- Nicholas Paul over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-200)
- He’s gone over this number in each of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.4 SOG and over 3 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 1.5 SOG in four of his last five. Ottawa also ranks 26th in SOG Allowed per game.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
