NHL Preview & Picks – November 24, 2021

The NHL has 14 games going tonight with a day off tomorrow for American Thanksgiving. Yes, we do have Canadian readers so I’ll be specific. The NHL is in full swing and won’t have another full day off until the December 24-26th break for Christmas.

A little side note is that I do plan on starting a daily podcast where I break down the NHL slate for the day so I can cover more games. If you have any suggestions in terms of topics, betting strategies, or items you want to cover, feel free to shoot me a message on Twitter or Instagram.

Now that I’ve covered that, let’s get into todays breakdown and picks.

New York Rangers @ New York Islanders

• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• TV Coverage: ESPN+
• New York Rangers: 11-4-3, 3rd Metropolitan (6-3-2 Away)
• New York Islanders: 5-8-2, 8th Metropolitan (0-2-0 Home)

Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Rangers’ last 8 games.
• NY Rangers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Islanders’ last 13 games.
• NY Islanders are 0-6 SU in their last 6 games.

New York Rangers

The Rangers come into this matchup vs their rival winning their last five out of six games. Their only loss during that six game span came against the Maple Leafs last week Thursday. Since that game, they have been well rested only playing one game vs the Sabres, which they won 5-4, as their game with Ottawa was postponed.

Offensively, they have been great during the past few games averaging 3.67 goals per game during those six games. This spark in offense has been much needed as they only have a 46.91 xGoals %, which ranks near the bottom of the league. New York has a -3.29 goals for above expected while only averaging 2.01 goals for per 60. Artemi Panarin leads the team with 19 points through 18 games and is coming off a three point night against Buffalo. Their enforcer Ryan Reaves was placed on IR last month with a lower body injury and remains out.

On the opposite side of the puck, the Rangers have been slightly better but, their stats may be misleading due their goalie, Igor Shesterkin. The Rangers are averaging 2.15 goals against per 60 with a -5.67 goals against above expected. Igor Shesterkin currently ranks 6th in terms of GSAx with a +11.4. He’s expected to get the start tonight against the Islanders after a few days off. Adam Fox has also had a great year for them averaging a point per game, providing some much needed offensive.

New York Islanders

The Islanders look to stop a six game skid at home here. They’re returning from an unprecedented 13 game road trip and will have their third home game tonight. Last game, they opened their new arena, the UBS Arena, but didn’t have much else to celebrate as they lost 3-0 to Toronto. They do not look like the same team that made the Eastern Conference Finals last year but to their credit have had an awful schedule.

During this six game losing streak, the Islanders have failed to find the back of the net. They’re averaging a measly 1 goal per game during this stretch that includes two shutouts. The Isles have a -5.99 goals for above expected which ranks 5th worst in the league. Their goals for per 60 of 2.03 correlates to their inability to capitalize on chances. Brock Nelson leads the team in points with 11 through 15 games. To make matters worse, their man advantage has been awful as well ranking 30th.

While their offense has been atrocious, their defense has been just bad. Which I guess is a step up but, still not an encouraging sign. However, the one encouraging stat for them is their goals against above expected, -2.32. They’re middle of the pack in terms of goals against per 60 with a 2.43. Ilya Sorokin has been their early season star with a +3.0 GSAx which is very impressive given the play of the team in front of him. However, Semyon Varlamov is expected to start as he has returned from injury. Varlamov has a -1.7 GSAx through his first four starts.

To make matters worse the Isles are also going through a bit of a COVID-19 outbreak with Bailey, Lee, Johnston, and Bellows questionable for tonight’s game. Chara also has COVID but is out indefinitely. Brock Nelson and Ryan Pulock are also out indefinitely with lower body injuries and will not suit up for tonight’s game.

PICK: NEW YORK RANGERS (-125) & UNDER 5.5 (-120)

So looking at both teams current status, the oddsmakers are begging you to take the Rangers with them being a slight favorite. After typing this last night, the line has shifted more towards the Rangers which makes sense.

Carolina Hurricanes @ Seattle Kraken

• Time: 10:00 PM ET
• TV Coverage: ESPN+
• Carolina Hurricanes: 14-2-1, 1st Metropolitan (8-1-1 Away)
• Seattle Kraken: 5-12-1, 8th Pacific (4-6-0 Home)

Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina’s last 7 games.
• Carolina are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games this season.
• The total has gone OVER in 9 of Seattle’s last 9 games.
• Seattle are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games.

Carolina Hurricanes

The Canes four game winning streak came to a halt last game at the hands of the San Jose Sharks. Carolina is currently in the middle of a six game road trip as they take on the Karen before traveling to Philly.

The Hurricanes have been one of the best teams offensively this year with a +4.95 goals for above expected and a 3.0 goals for per 60. However, as of late they have been slightly inconsistent bouncing between high and low scoring affairs. Andrei Svechnikov leads the team in points with 19 through 17 games. Their Power Play has also been solid early in the season ranking 8th.

On the back end of things, the Hurricanes have been more impressive than their offense. They rank 3rd in goals against per 60 averaging just 1.69 with a -11.83 goals against above expected. This defense strives on limiting shooting chances ranking 4th in shots on goal allowed. Despite their ability to limit shots, they do give up a ton of high danger shots against. Frederick Anderson who has been phenomenal this season, is expected to get the start in the net. Through his first 13 starts in net he has a +13.3 GSAx.

Seattle Kraken

The Kraken stopped a six game losing streak last game, grabbing a solid win at home defeating the Washington Capitals 5-2. Seattle has had a tough start to the season as many expansion teams have had.

Offensively the Kraken have been middle of the road averaging 2.17 goals per 60. However, they only have an xGoals % of 39.02% and a -1.63 goals for above expected. They struggle to generate scoring chances which is more of a concern than just failing to convert on them. They also face a great Carolina defense tonight which won’t help them turn things around on offense.

Their defense has caused the majority of their struggles ranking dead last in goals against per 60 with a 3.39 and in goals against above expected with a +18.17. While their defense hasn’t been great, their goaltending has been the root of this issue. Phillip Grubauer who is expected to start has the leagues worst GSAx (-14.5).

PICK: CAROLINA HURRICANES (-140)

This line makes me slightly hesitant to the Canes but I like this spot for them. The Kraken are coming off a big win and Carolina is coming off a loss. I think Carolina to rebound in this spot against a team they should beat.

Other small leans for tonight’s slate include:

• COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS (+115)
• VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS (+100)

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.