NHL Preview & Picks – November 29, 2021

The NHL continues to roll on… Only four games going tonight highlighted by the Penguins taking on the Flames.

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Calgary Flames

• Time: 9:00 PM ET
• TV Coverage: ESPN+
• Pittsburgh Penguins: 10-7-4, 5th Metropolitan (5-2-2 Away)
• Calgary Flames: 12-4-5, 2nd Pacific (3-2-3 Home)

Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games.
• Pittsburgh are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
• Calgary are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary’s last 5 games at home.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins enter this game off a 6-3 loss to the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday night. Prior to that loss, they were on a five game win streak that included wins over Toronto, Winnipeg, and the Islanders.

Pittsburgh struggled during the early portion of the season mainly due to a bunch of injuries to key guys. Sidney Crosby, missed several games due to Covid protocols and has finally started to find his touch again, collecting three points in the past two games. While the Penguins are close to full strength they are still missing two offensive weapons in Evgeni Malkin (knee surgery) and Bryan Rust (lower body).

Offensively, the Penguins haven’t been great but, to their credit have preformed better than expected given the circumstances. They have one of the highest Expected Goal Percentages in the League with a 55.16%. However, they haven’t been able to capitalize on chances they should have, seen in their Goals For Above Expected (-5.1). They’re middle of the road in Goals For Per 60 averaging 2.44 which is slightly lower than their Expected Goals For Per 60. This team is great at generating chances including High Danger Shots For but needs to take advantage of those opportunities which they’ve been much better as of late.

Defensively, they have been pretty standard with a -1.1 Goals Against Above Expected. One highlight for this defense is their ability to kill penalties as they rank 1st in the NHL in PK %. They’re giving up an average of 2.16 Goals Against Per 60 which ranks 13th, slightly above average. In their last six games Pittsburgh’s defense has only given up more than 2 goals once, and is averaging 0.83 goals against. Tristan Jarry has been confirmed the starter for tonight and has been one of the best goalies in the NHL this season. He has a +9.8 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) and only allowed two goals in his last five starts.

Calgary Flames

Like the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Calgary Flames are also coming off a loss on Saturday. Calgary was on a four winning streak before being beaten at home 4-2 by the Winnipeg Jets.

The Flames offensively have been great this year with a 54.08 Expected Goals Percentage and averaging 2.58 Goals For Per 60. Johnny Gaudreau leads the team with 25 points through their first 21 games this year. Calgary has been one of the best teams at taking advantage of every scoring chance they get. They have a +1.16 Goals For Above Expected which ranks 9th in the League. On the man advantage the Flames have also been good, ranking 7th in PP%, but will have their hands full tonight.

While Calgary’s offense has been good, the Flames defense highlighted by Jacob Markstrom’s play, has been the story. The Flames currently lead the league in Goals Against Above Expected with -13.38. In addition to GAAx, they rank first in Goals Against Per 60 averaging just 1.35. Like their Power Play, the Flames have been good on the Penalty Kill with a 88.2%. However, Jacob Markstrom has been the star of the show for this team as previously mentioned. He enters the game with a +9.7 Goals Saved Above Expected and a league leading 5 shutouts.

PICK: PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (+120) 

PICK: UNDER 5.5 (-125)

While both teams can generate offense, this should be a low scoring game given the goaltending matchup. I see this as more of a 50-50 game and given Pittsburgh’s road record, I like them here. Another interesting note is that Calgary has a better record on the road than they do at home.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.