We have a massive slate tonight with thirteen games taking place across the NHL. I’ll break down my picks and offer a few player props to target.
Pick(s):
- Winnipeg Jets in Regulation (-135) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.34 to win 0.25 Units
The Jets have looked reinvigorated after a disappointing season last year. They’ve started 5-3-1 and are currently 2nd in the Central Division. Winnipeg was outplayed in their last game against the Vegas Golden Knights but thanks to the play of Connor Hellebuyck, they were able to salvage a point.
Montreal has gone 5-5 to start the year with the majority of their wins coming on home ice. Head coach Martin St. Louis has been able to inspire some of their young talents, specifically Cole Caufield.
Winnipeg has struggled to generate and capitalize on scoring chances. They rank 24th in GF/G (2.89) and 23rd in SOG/G (29.7). However, Winnipeg has been much better at home this season averaging 3.00 GF/G and 36.0 SOG/G. Kyle Connor who had 93 points last season has gotten off to a slow start with only four points through their first nine games.
Just like the Jets, Montreal hasn’t been great at producing offense. They’re 26th in GF/G (2.80) and 21st in SOG/G (29.80). On the road, their production worsens averaging 2.40 GF/G and 29.0 SOG/G. Defensively, they’re middle of the pack averaging 3.1 GA/G with that number moving to 3.2 away from home.
Connor Hellebuyck and Sam Montembeault have been confirmed as the starters for tonight’s matchup. As I mentioned above, Hellebuyck has had a rebound year ranking 3rd in GSAx (+7.4). Montembeault has been the worse of Montreal’s goaltending duo but has still played well ranking 17th in GSAx (+3.2).
The Jets have been a different team on home ice this season while Montreal hasn’t been as sharp on the road. I think the Jets rebound after a tough performance in Vegas. Also, this total shouldn’t be at 6.5. I think this game finishes 3-1 or 4-2 Jets, so I lean the under.
- Calgary Flames in Regulation (-130) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.33 to win 0.25 Units
The Flames have had a slow start to the year when you compare it to their preseason expectations. They’re 5-3-0 sitting in 5th place in the Pacific Division. In their last game, they collapsed and blew a 4-2 lead in the 3rd period to the Seattle Kraken. There’s no doubt they’ll be looking to move on quickly from that loss.
The Predators have had a bizarre start to their season. They played their first two games in Prague, where they won both against an inferior opponent. Since then, they’ve lost seven of their last eight games.
Calgary generates a ton of scoring opportunities ranking 3rd in SOG/G and 8th in xGoal %. They’ve had issues capitalizing on these chances ranking 22nd in Shooting % but even with that, they still rank 8th in GF/G (3.50).
Nashville has struggled to produce offensively ranking 27th in GF/G averaging 2.60. Defensively, they rank 23rd averaging 3.50 GA/G but away from home that number jumps to 4.75 GA/G.
Jacob Markstrom is the confirmed starter for Calgary tonight with Juuse Saros expected to get the nod for Nashville. Markstrom has looked good through his first six games with a +3.5 GSAx while Saros has struggled with a -0.2 GSAx.
While the Flames haven’t looked stellar at home this season, they’ve faced some good teams. Nashville hasn’t looked great away from home either with a 1-3-0 record on the year. From all the local reporters, Flames head coach Darryl Sutter wasn’t too happy after their most recent loss. Calgary dominated that game but sloppy play lead to scoring chances for the Kraken which they took advantage of. I’m guessing we see an inspired Flames team tonight against an inferior opponent.
- Seattle Kraken/ Minnesota Wild over 6.5 (-110) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.28 to win 0.25 Units
Seattle ranks 10th in GF/G averaging 3.45. On the road, that number jumps to 4.00 GF/G. Defensively, they average 3.45 GA/G (22nd) but away from home that number decreases slightly to 3.40.
Minnesota averages 3.40 GF/G ranking 10th. At home, they have been even better averaging 4.00 GF/G. Defensively, they rank 25th in the NHL giving up an average of 3.60 GA/G. However, at home, they’ve been even worse with a 4.80 GA/G.
Martin Jones and Marc-Andre Fleury have been confirmed as tonight’s starting goalies. Jones has a 3.09 GAA and sub .900 SV%. He currently ranks 39th in the terms of GSAx with a -1.1. Fleury has also had a rough start to the season with a 3.33 GAA and .894 SV%. He’s been even worse than Jones in terms of goals saved above expected with a -2.5.
Player Props to Target:
- Anders Lee over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+115)
- He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 3 SOG and over 3.4 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. St. Louis ranks 12th in SOG allowed per game. The Blues also allow the 7th most SOG per game to Left Wingers.
- Brendan Gallagher over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+110)
- He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 SOG and over 4.2 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last five games. Winnipeg ranks 23rd in SOG allowed per game. The Jets also allow the 19th most SOG per game to Right Wingers.
- Nazem Kadri over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-125)
- He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 4 SOG and over 7.6 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. Nashville ranks 19th in SOG allowed per game. The Predators also allow the 9th most SOG per game to Centers.
- Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-125)
- He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.8 SOG and over 5.8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in three of his last five. Arizona ranks 31st in SOG allowed per game. The Coyotes also allow the most SOG per game to Defensemen in the NHL.
- Frank Vatrano over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130)
- He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 4 SOG and over 5.8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. Vancouver ranks 21st in SOG allowed per game. The Canucks also allow the 5th most SOG per game to Right Wingers.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
