NHL Preview & Picks – October 11th, 2022

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The NHL kicks off in North America with a rematch of the 2021-22 Eastern Conference Finals. It was a tale of two stories last year as the Rangers went undefeated in their three matchups against the Lightning in the regular season but couldn’t handle them in the playoffs losing in 6. The Rangers will look to build off their surprising success last season while the Lightning aim to make it back to their fourth consecutive Stanley Cup Finals.

 

Tampa Bay Lightning @ vs New York Rangers

  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • TV Coverage: ESPN+
  • Tampa Bay Lightning: 0-0-0, — Atlantic (0-0-0 Away)
  • New York Rangers: 0-0-0, — Atlantic (0-0-0 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Tampa Bay Lightning -110 -105 +1.5 (-240) o5.5 (-105)
New York Rangers -110 -115 -1.5 (+200) u5.5 (-115)

 

Preview:

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning salary cap issues forced them into letting Ondrej Palat and Ryan McDonagh walk this offseason. However, they were able to keep a few key pieces this offseason re-signing Mikhail Sergachev, Eric Cernak, and Anthony Cerilli.

Since 2020, Tampa Bay has represented the Eastern Conference in the finals each year. Given their current roster, they look to be poised to make another run this season. The biggest issue for them has been their inability to stay healthy. Brayden Point will return to the lineup after suffering an injury forcing him to miss the majority of the postseason last year. He’ll be playing on their top line with Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov who’ve had injury issues themselves.

Andrei Vasilevskiy will once again look to anchor this team with his play in net. Over the past three season’s he’s been incredible and the main reason for their success.

21-22 Season
GF/GP 3.48  8th
GA/GP 2.78 6th
PP%  23.9% 8th
PK% 80.6% 11th
SF/GP 30.9 17th
SA/GP 29.8 7th

 

Projected Lines:

Steven Stamkos Brayden Point Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel Nick Paul Alex Killorn
Cole Koepke Vladislav Namestnikov Ross Colton
Patrick Maroon Pierre-Edouard Bellemare Corey Perry
Victor Hedman Cal Foote
Mikhail Sergachev Erik Cernak
Hayden Fleury Philippe Meyers
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Brian Elliot

 

New York Rangers

The Rangers are coming off a somewhat unexpected season. Igor Shesterkin was able to provide some stable goaltending propelling them to the Eastern Conference Finals. They also had Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, and Chris Kreider all record season highs providing offensive support as well.

This offseason they did lose a few pieces including Frank Vatrano, Ryan Strome, Alexander Georgiev, and Andrew Copp. Some of those guys were trade deadline acquisitions so it was unlikely that they would have resigned anyway. They did make a few acquisitions such as Vincent Trocheck, Ryan Carpenter, Jimmy Vesey, and Jaroslav Halak.

Their success this season depends on a few factors but mainly the play of last year’s Vezina Trophy winner, Igor Shesterkin. If their top six can continue to produce, they should be able to make a run at the Eastern Conference Finals again.

21-22 Season
GF/GP 3.05  17th
GA/GP 2.49 2nd
PP%  25.2% 8th
PK% 80.6% 11th
SF/GP 30.9 17th
SA/GP 30.8 11th

 

Projected Lines:

Chris Kreider Mika Zibanejad Kaapo Kakko
Artemi Panarin Vincent Trocheck Vitali Kravtsov
Alexis Lafreniere Filip Chytil Barclay Goodrow
Jimmy Vesey Ryan Carpenter Ryan Reaves
Ryan Lindgren Adam Fox
K’Andre Miller Jacob Trouba
Zac Jones Braden Schneider
Igor Shesterkin
Jaroslav Halak

 

 

Pick:

  • New York Rangers (-115) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.58 to win 0.50 Units

For the first few weeks of the regular season, I’m sticking with half-unit plays. We’ve seen the Lightning struggle out of the gate after making a deep postseason run. The Rangers were able to shut this team down during the regular season last year and are looking for revenge. If we look at the home/away splits from last season, the Rangers were much better at home while Tampa Bay struggled on the road.

 

Leans:

  • New York Rangers/ Tampa Bay Lightning Under 5.5 (-108) – Barstool
    • Risk 0.27 to win 0.25 Units
  • Vegas Golden Knights/ Los Angeles Kings Over 6.0 (+100) – Caesars
    • Risk 0.25 to win 0.25 Units

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Jonathan Marchessault over 0.5 Points (-125) – DraftKings
    • He went over this number in three of their four matchups against the Kings last season. In those three matchups, he recorded over a single point twice.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.