NHL Preview & Picks – October 12th, 2023

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We went 2-0 last night continuing rebounding from a terrible opening night. We have seven games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down a few key matchups along with my best bets and a few player props to take a look at.

 

Key Matchups:

New York Rangers @ Buffalo Sabres

  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • New York Rangers: 0-0-0, – Metropolitan (0-0-0 Away)
  • Buffalo Sabres: 0-0-0, – Atlantic (0-0-0 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
New York Rangers -125 -135 -1.5 (+185) o6.5 (-118)
Buffalo Sabres +105 +114 +1.5 (-225) u6.5 (-102)

 

The Sabres and Rangers both start their season tonight with hopes of making the postseason. New York has qualified for the playoffs in each of the last two years while the Sabres have not made the playoffs since 2011.

The Rangers added a few notable UFAs this offseason including Blake Wheeler and Nick Bonito. They also added Jonathan Quick to fill the backup role behind Igor Shesterkin after Jaroslav Halak left. Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane are the notable losses for New York. Peter Laviolette has replaced Gerald Gallant behind the bench which should bring a more up-tempo style of play to this team from years past.

The Sabres finished one point back of the last wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference last year. Their main issues last season were their goaltending and defense. Devon Levi joined the team after finishing his season at Northeastern and assumed the starting role. In the seven games he played with the team, he had a .905 SV% and 2.94 GAA. Buffalo added Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson to help their defensive unit.

The past few meetings between these two teams have been tight with each of them requiring more than 60 minutes to settle. The Sabres offensive should provide plenty of issues for New York tonight but their defense remains questionable. Opposite of that, New York’s forward group relied on their PowerPlay for a majority of their scoring last year so they’ll need to generate more 5-v-5 chances.

 

Florida Panthers @ Minnesota Wild

  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Florida Panthers: 0-0-0, – Atlantic (0-0-0 Away)
  • Minnesota Wild: 0-0-0, – Central (0-0-0 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Florida Panthers +105 +110 +1.5 (-225) o6.5 (-110)
Minnesota Wild -125 -130 -1.5 (+185) u6.5 (-110)

 

Florida has high expectations this season after losing the Stanley Cup finals last year. They nearly completed their incredible postseason run before eventually losing to the Golden Knights. Their core has largely remained intact but will be missing a few key pieces tonight in Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad. Florida’s biggest question mark is the play of Sergi Bobrovsky who was incredible in the playoffs this year but has shown in the past that his play can be very inconsistent at times.

Just like Florida, Minnesota has high expectations after losing in the first round of the playoffs last season. Kirill Kaprizov has emerged as a superstar in this league after consecutive 40-goal seasons. Minnesota will be without defenseman Jared Spurgeon tonight who’s week-to-week with an upper-body injury. He led all Wild defensemen with 34 points and was second in time on ice, averaging 21:49 per game.

 

Seattle Kraken @ Nashville Predators

  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Seattle Kraken: 0-1-0, 7th Pacific (0-1-0 Away)
  • Nashville Predators: 0-1-0, 7th Central (0-1-0 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Seattle Kraken -115 -110 +1.5 (-258) o6 (-120)
Nashville Predators -105 -110 -1.5 (+210) u6 (+100)

 

Both these teams are coming off losses in their season openers.

Seattle lost 4-1 to the defending Stanley Cup Champion Vegas Golden Knights. They outshot Vegas in that game but couldn’t beat Adin Hill who finished with a 2.42 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).

Nashville fell to the Lightning by a score of 5-3. Statistically, they had more expected goals than Tampa Bay but Juuse Saros struggled in net ending the game with a -1.08 GSAx.

These teams have faced off six times before with Seattle beating Nashville four of those times.

 

Picks:

[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]

  • Philadelphia Flyers/ Columbus Blue Jackets Over 6.5 (-114) – FanDuel

 

  • Same Game Parlay: Dallas Stars moneyline/ Under 7.5 – (+100) – DraftKings

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Joel Farabee over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-150) – DraftKings
    • Joel Farabee has recorded more than 1.5 shots on goal in each of the last three games last season. During that span, he averaged 4.3 shots on goal and 6.0 shot attempts per game. Last season Columbus ranked 31st in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 35.4. They also allowed the most shots on goal to Left Wingers last year. He’s on the top line in addition to the PowerPlay so he should have plenty of ice time tonight. Farabee has exceeded this number six times in his seven previous matchups against the Blue Jackets.
  • Casey Mittelstadt over 0.5 Points (-110) – DraftKings
    • Casey Mittelstadt finished the season strong last year recording at least one point in his last five games. Historically he’s been great against the Rangers with points in three of his four games against them.
  • Jordan Kyrou over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-150) – DraftKings
    • Jordan Kyrou has recorded more than 2.5 shots on goal in each of the last three games last season. During that span, he averaged 4.0 shots on goal and 5.0 shot attempts per game. Kyrou is on the top line in addition to the PowerPlay so he should have plenty of ice time tonight. In his five previous matchups against the Stars, Kyrou has gone over this number each time.
  • Jared McCann over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-140) – DraftKings
    • Jared McCann has recorded more than 2.5 shots on goal in four of the last five games. In the first game of the season, McCann had five shots on goal in six shot attempts. In his previous matchup against the Predators, McCann had four shots on goal in seven shot attempts.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

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