We have a massive slate tonight with ten games taking place across the NHL. I didn’t have any plays yesterday so today’s card will be slightly larger than normal. As always, I’m keeping it light for the first few weeks until we can fully analyze these teams.
Game Previews:
Detroit Red Wings (+190) @ Boston Bruins (-225)
Detroit’s had a strong start to the year but, have lost three of their last four games. They’ll look to turn things around against a strong opponent.
The Boston Bruins are red hot right now despite missing some of their core guys. Brad Marchand has returned to the ice and it looks like they’ll get him back sooner than expected. Boston’s unbeaten at home and 6-1 overall with their only loss coming in Ottawa.
DET: Ville Husso (expected)
BOS: Jeremy Swayman (expected)
Florida Panthers (-200) @ Philadelphia Flyers (+170)
The Panthers have started the season 4-2-1. In their last game, they lost to Chicago 4-2 on the road. They’ve been able to generate a ton of offense ranking 5th in xG% but have been unable to capitalize on their chances ranking 26th in Shooting %.
Philadelphia has had a surprising start going 4-2 under new head coach John Tortorella. They haven’t been able to generate a ton of offense but have gotten some great goaltending from Carter Hart who ranks 3rd in GSAx.
FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky (expected)
PHI: Carter Hart (expected)
Montreal Canadiens (+140) @ Buffalo Sabres (-165)
Montreal currently sits at the bottom of the Atlantic Division with a 3-4 record. They’ve been above average defensively but have struggled to find the back of the net ranking 26th in GF/G.
Buffalo’s coming off a west coast road trip where they went 3-1 defeating the Flames, Oilers, and Canucks. They currently rank 2nd in GFPG and 3rd in GA/G. On top of that Craig Anderson and Eric Comrie have provided some above-average goaltending.
MTL: Jake Allen (expected)
BUF: Eric Comrie (expected)
Minnesota Wild (-120) @ Ottawa Senators (+100)
Minnesota has had a lackluster start to the year with a 2-3-1 record. They rank 6th in GF/G but dead last in the league in GA/G. Marc-Andre Fleury hasn’t been great either with a 5.24 GAA through three starts.
Ottawa’s on a four-game win streak after dropping their first two games. All four of those games they won were at home and the two they lost were on the road. During that span, they’ve averaged over five goals for and less than three goals against.
MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury (expected)
OTT: Anton Forsberg (expected)
St. Louis Blues (+135) @ Nashville Predators (-155)
St. Louis is coming off a game against the Edmonton Oilers last night (Wednesday). They haven’t had the same offensive production as last year but have been fantastic defensively ranking 4th in GA/G.
Nashville is currently 7th in the Central Division with a 2-4-1 record. They haven’t been great in any area but more specifically on offense. Juuse Saros also hasn’t looked like a Vezina Finalist through four games with a GAA above 3.00.
STL: Thomas Greiss (expected)
NSH: Juuse Saros (expected)
Washington Capitals (+100) @ Dallas Stars (-120)
The Capitals enter this matchup on a two-game win streak knocking off the Kings and Devils. They’ll be playing their second game of a four-game road trip. Washington hasn’t been able to produce offensively but ranks 25th in GA/G.
Dallas has had a strong start to the season anchored by Jake Oettinger who has a 1.25 GAA and .959 SV%. They’ve also been great offensively ranking 7th in GF/G. However, they’re on a bit of a cold streak dropping their last two games.
WSH: Darcy Kuemper (expected)
DAL: Jake Oettinger (expected)
Edmonton Oilers (-210) @ Chicago Blackhawks (+180)
Edmonton’s coming off a game against the St. Louis Blues on Wednesday night. They’ve looked like a classic Oilers team so far with a solid offensive and lackluster defense. New goaltender Jack Campbell hasn’t been great either with a 3.61 GAA.
Just like the Flyers, the Blackhawks have had a surprising start to the season going 4-2, and are undefeated at home. They rank in the middle of the pack for GF/G and GA/G. Chicago doesn’t generate a ton of offensive scoring chances but have been great at capitalizing on the ones they do.
EDM: Jack Campbell (expected)
CHI: Alex Stalock (expected)
Vancouver Canucks (+105) @ Seattle Kraken (-125)
The Canucks are winless to start the year going 0-5-2. They’ve blown leads in nearly all of their games. Thatcher Demko hasn’t been great with a 4.06 GAA and .872 SV%.
Seattle has started the season off 3-3 defeating the Sabres in their last game 5-1. They haven’t been great in any particular category but have been able to find ways to win in a few games.
VAN: Thatcher Demko (expected)
SEA: Martin Jones (expected)
Toronto Maple Leafs (-210) @ San Jose Sharks (+180)
Toronto is 4-3 on the season coming off a loss against the Golden Knights on Monday. They’ve been great at home but have struggled on the road. Newly acquired Ilya Samsonov has provided them with some stable goaltending ranking 4th in GSAx.
San Jose hasn’t had a great start to the year going 2-7. They’ve struggled to produce offensively ranking dead last in GF/G. Their goaltending has also been sub-par with the combination of Reimer and Kahkonen.
TOR: Erik Kallgren (expected)
SJS: Kaapo Kahkonen (expected)
Winnipeg Jets (+125) @ Los Angeles Kings (-145)
The Winnipeg Jets snapped their two-game losing streak against the Blues on Monday defeating them 4-0. They’ve been great defensively ranking 9th in GA/G but have struggled to find the back of the net ranking 26th in GF/G.
Los Angeles has started the season off 4-4 and sits in 4th place in the Pacific division. Jonathan Quick has gotten off to a slow start after having an unbelieve season last year.
WPG: Connor Hellebuyck (expected)
LAK: Jonathan Quick (expected)
Pick(s):
- Dallas Stars (-120) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.30 to win 0.25 Units
The Stars are coming off back-to-back road losses against the Senators and Bruins. They return home and will face a Washington team that’s won their last two. This will be the first game of a three-game road trip for the Capitals.
In those last two games, Dallas struggled to produce offensively. However, if we look at the home and away split for them, they’ve been immensely better on home ice. Washington on the other hand, has struggled on the road.
Dallas is expected to have Oettinger in net who ranks 1st in the NHL in GSAx with a +7.2. Washington is likely to have Darcy Kuemper in the net who ranks 41st in that category.
- Buffalo Sabres in Regulation (+100) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.25 to win 0.25 Units
The Sabres are coming off their worst performance of the year in Seattle. To be fair, it was the last game of a four-game road trip so I’m sure exhaustion played a role. Despite that loss, they’ve been great to start the season ranking 2nd in GF/G and 3rd in GA/G.
Montreal has dropped their last two games and will begin a four-game road trip tonight. They’ve been above average at home but have looked like a different team on the road. In their two road games, they’ve averaged 0.50 GF/G and 3.00 GA/G.
While I’m sure Montreal will improve on the road eventually, the Sabres have shown that they can rebound from a disappointing performance. Earlier this season, they lost 7-1 to Pittsburg and bounced back the next game with a 4-1 win upsetting Ottawa.
Eric Comrie is expected to start for Buffalo while Jake Allen is the likely starter for Montreal. Allen does have the advantage in terms of GSAx but Comrie isn’t far behind.
- Edmonton Oilers/ Chicago Blackhawks over 6.5 (-125) – Caesars
- Risk 0.31 to win 0.25 Units
The Oilers are coming off a game last night where they took down the Blues 3-1. Tonight they’ll face off against the Blackhawks in their second game of a three-game road trip. Edmonton’s been clicking offensively behind the usual combination of McDavid and Draisaitl. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zack Hyman have also been averaging a point per game which is some much-needed depth scoring for this squad. Defensively, they’ve continued to struggle ranking 22nd in the NHL in GA/G and 23rd in SOGA/G.
Chicago ranks 15th in GF/G and has been getting some solid depth production offensively. At home, they’ve also been better with a 4.33 GF/G compared their average of 3.33 GF/G overall. Defensively, they’ve been above average ranking 13th in GA/G.
I believe this game goes over the total for a bunch of reasons. The first is offense, both of these teams have been able to produce this season and face weaker defenses. The Oilers and Chicago rank near the bottom in terms of SOGA/G.
Goaltending is another reason, Campbell has been poor to start the year. The Blackhawks should be able to get at least 2-3 by him. Stalock has played pretty well to start the year but has shown he can have a blowup game. In his last two games, he faced offenses worse than Edmonton’s and allowed two or more goals in both matchups. Edmonton’s speed should also provide Chicago’s defense with some issues. Chicago also ranks 30th in Penalty minutes which will provide the Oiler’s PP, which ranks 3rd, several opportunities against Chicago’s PK which ranks 17th.
Player Props to Target:
- Matthew Tkachuk over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-105)
- Tkachuk has recorded over 3.5 Shots on Goal in six of the first seven games. Last year when he was on the Flames, he went over this number in two of three matchups. This year on the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in three of four games.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
