I handed out a play in this matchup yesterday, but the postponement gives us a different pitching matchup today. As such, I am on a new(but similar) play for Game 3 of the World Series. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Astros/Phillies F5 OVER 4(-120)–7:03 PM CT
I initially played the Phillies F5 TT OVER 1.5, but upon last night’s postponement and today’s pitching change, I like the Astros offense equally as much as I do Philadelphia’s early in this game.
The Phillies handled righties in their home ballpark better than any team in baseball down the final 2 months of the season(136 wRC+), and that has carried over into the postseason. The Phillies have crushed the likes of Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, Mike Clevinger, and Joe Musgrove at Citizens Bank Park this postseason. Astros SP Lance McCullers Jr does have postseason pedigree, but a large chunk of that dates back to the 2017 ALCS. I’m not afraid to bet against McCullers because he has walked over 4.5 BB/9 on the road each of the past 2 seasons and looked shaky against the Yankees in his last start. McCullers is no more equipped to hold down this Phillies lineup than any of the other 4 aforementioned arms; I think Philadelphia puts up at least 2 in the F5.
The Astros struggled vs righties on the road down the stretch of the season(which is why I was hesitant to back them last night), but the same can’t be said about how they’ve fared vs lefties. Over the final 2 months of the season, Houston held the best wRC+ in baseball(137) on the road vs left-handed pitching. Phillies SP Ranger Suarez had an inconsistent 2022 season, especially at Citizens Bank Park(4.27 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). While he still does a good job of producing ground-balls, he allowed more than double the amount of HR’s this year than he did in 2021. I like the way Houston matches up with this “pitch-to-contact” lefty.
With two fresh bullpens, I really don’t want any part of the later innings. Both of these SP’s are vulnerable in this particular matchup, and I expect both offenses to be able to take advantage.
