We’ve got a LOADED CBB slate to start the week; as such, I have 4 plays locked and loaded. As a reminder, I keep all of my plays 0.5u early in the season before ramping it up in January-February.
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*CBB(0.5u): Grand Canyon/Wichita State UNDER 125.5–2 PM CT
Each of these teams runs at a bottom 50 pace in the country, and neither offense ranks inside the Top 125 in efficiency according to KenPom. Neither team shoots better than 31% from beyond the arc(Wichita State is shooting an abysmal 22.6% from 3), and both teams struggle to make their foul shots.
For as bearish as I am on the Wichita State program, you can’t ignore the way they’ve come out of the gates on the defensive end. Last Thursday, they held a formidable offense in Richmond to just 53. GCU, on the other hand, held Nevada to just 59 and mopped the floor defensively with some teams you’d expect them to.
With the lack of shot-making and snails pace, this is a “first to 60 wins” game. Each offense is also poor enough to lag behind in the low 50’s, making the Under the right call.
*CBB(0.5u): Tulane -3.5 vs Nevada–4 PM CT
Tulane has come out of the gates hot, averaging just short of 90 PPG through 3 games. It’s easy to back Tulane given their efficiency from the floor, but also because they rank 5th in CBB in Free Throw%. This is one of the most experienced teams in CBB that has played A LOT of basketball together, and you’ve seen that work to their benefit early in the year.
Nevada barely cracks out the Top 100 in defensive efficiency according to KenPom, and their offense isn’t too impressive either; they struggled to reach 60 against both Grand Canyon and Texas Arlington. Defense isn’t the calling card of this Tulane team, but they’re solid enough to hold the Wolfpack down. Over the course of the 40 minutes, I think Nevada’s lack of playmaking offensively takes them out this game.
*CBB(0.5u): St John’s -3.5 vs Temple–8:30 PM CT
We know one thing about St John’s: They want to run and run a lot. The Johnnies rank 5th in the country in pace and have paired that with an over 50% FG percentage to start the season. Additionally, St John’s is better on the defensive end of the floor than given credit for, ranking top 50 in defensive efficiency according to KenPom.
I imagine there will be a lot of love for Temple given we have seen them beat Villanova and Rutgers early in the season. In my opinion, what they do against slower-paced and/or defensive-minded teams tells me little as to how they’ll fare against the Johnnies. This is still a team that ranks 121st in defensive efficiency; in my opinion, this is a great “sell high” spot on Temple after their hot(but maybe not sustainable start).
I like the Johnnies to take care of business at Barclays tonight.
*CBB(0.5u): Arizona TT OVER 84 vs Cincinnati–10:30 PM CT
Arizona ranks 1st in all of College Basketball in pace and is scoring over 105 PPG this season. While this is clearly their toughest matchup of the season, that doesn’t mean Cincinnati is equipped to stop this Arizona high flying attack. Arizona was high flying for much of last season but was given trouble when a similarly good defense got stops and slowed the tempo down. Cincinnati is not “bad” defensively, but 61st in defensive efficiency is just not going to be enough to hold the Wildcats down for 40 minutes.
84 is high, but it ain’t high enough.
