An 0-1 Monday brings me to 9-5 early in the CBB season. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to break out. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CBB(0.5u): Penn State +2 @ Clemson–6 PM CT
I think Penn State should be favored here even with home court advantage factored in. I’ve been high on the Nittany Lions since the back half of last season; Micah Shrewsberry returns the most experienced team in College Basketball that is dramatically improved offensively from a year ago. While their 42% 3-point rate won’t hold up, it gives you an indicator as to how improved the Nittany Lions are on that end of the floor. While Clemson has finally climbed into the Top 100 in defensive efficiency, I’m not ready to buy it considering they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country up to this point. Brad Brownell is notorious for doing less with more; I like this experienced Penn State team to win outright on the road.
*CBB(0.5u): Syracuse/Illinois OVER 144–6:30 PM CT
This is a horrible matchup for Syracuse’s defense. The Orange rank 300th in defensive rebounding percentage, while the Illini are a top 50 offensive rebounding team in the country. When you consider Illinois also shoots over 50% from the floor and runs at a Top 15 pace in the country, it’s pretty hard to imagine them not getting into the 80’s in this matchup. While sentiment is low on Syracuse right now, I think their offense’s best days lay ahead. The Orange have slowed their offense down significantly this year, but they simply can’t afford to do that tonight to keep up with Illinois. Syracuse is far better from deep than their current 33% 3pt would suggest, and this is a game where I expect their guards to step up. This one’s getting played in the 150’s.
*CBB(0.5u): Virginia/Michigan UNDER 129–8:30 PM CT
There are 363 teams in Division 1 College Basketball. Can you guess what Virginia ranks in adjusted pace? 362nd. Their scores against Illinois and Baylor are inflated because those are two teams that rank in the top quarter of the country in pace. Michigan, on the other hand, ranks in the bottom half of the country in pace and is going to center their offense in the halfcourt around Hunter Dickinson. The Wolverines are going to find their rhythm at some point, but is it really going to come against a Top 15 defense in the country this early in the season? Regardless, don’t let Virginia’s prior scores fool you; this is a team that wants to win games 62-57. I think that’s the type of result we get tonight.
