Happy Opening Day of CBB! To start out the season, all plays will be 0.5u and I won’t have as many plays as I do in January-February. With that said, given the sheer volume of today’s card, I do have 4 plays for you looking to come out of the gates fast!
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*CBB(0.5u): Morehead State TT UNDER 56.5 @ Indiana–6 PM CT
There is a lot of hype around Indiana this year as Mike Woodson enters his second year at the helm of this Hoosiers program. The offense was far too inconsistent last year, and you have to account for some wiggle room on that end of the floor early in the season. However, I feel quite confident in Indiana’s defense; Woodson instantly improved Indiana to a top 25 defense in his first season, and I have them power-rated as a Top 10 defense in the country heading into the season.
Morehead State runs a slow-paced style of offense(bottom 50 in CBB) that is not going to match up well against Indiana. KenPom has the Eagles ranked 248th on that end of the floor, which gives you a barometer as to how big of a mismatch this is. I expect Indiana to come out with their hair on fire defensively and possibly hold Morehead State into the 40’s.
*CBB(0.5u): Texas State TT UNDER 59.5 @ Washington State–6:30 PM CT
I’m not a huge believer in Washington State’s offense; I have them power-rated outside of the Top 100 in the country on that end of the floor. While that dissuades me from laying double-digits with the Cougars, I have very little doubt their defense will shine in this matchup.
Texas State is an EXTREMELY slow-paced team(335th last season) that could go even slower this year. Some key losses on the offensive end of the floor drops their offense outside of the Top 200 according to KenPom. We know Terrence Johnson is not going away from his slow-paced ways; am I really expecting this group to come out and hang 60 on the road against a Top 50 defense?
*CFB(0.5u): Iowa State 1H -16 vs IUPUI–7 PM CT
As I am writing this, I am currently watching Baylor take a 38-point lead into the half against Mississippi Valley State. It’s a good reminder that, when you’re talking about the bottom 10-or-so teams in College Basketball stepping up in competition, the oddsmakers really can’t make these lines high enough.
IUPUI is an utter train wreck of a program. In fact, this is the last year of the program’s existence. This team went 3-26 a year ago and very well may be the worst team in America once again.
We’ll see if TJ Otzelberger can sustain success in Ames after an incredible Sweet 16 run in his first year, but regardless, this is an absolute dream matchup for his Cyclones.
*CFB(0.5u): UT Arlington TT UNDER 57 @ Oklahoma State–8 PM CT
Common theme with these TT Under’s: Very slow-paced teams with poor scoring ability stepping up in competition against bruising defenses.
UT Arlington ranked in the bottom quarter of America in pace last season and likely brings a bottom 50 offense in the country into Stillwater tonight. I’m actually expecting a dramatic improvement from Oklahoma State’s offense this year, but I’m just going to need to see it before I believe it when you’re talking about laying 20 points. We do know the Cowboys had a Top 5 defense in the country a year ago that should (at the very least) finish in the Top 25 this season.
UTA put up just 45 points against these Cowboys last year in the season opener; This game screams 70-50.
