A 2-0, +2u Tuesday in MLB has me back into the green for the Postseason! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Yankees F5 -0.5(+110) vs Guardians–6:37 PM CT
There’s a chance this game gets postponed due to weather, but as long as these two SP’s match up in Yankee Stadium during this series, I will like the Yankees early in the game.
Yankees SP Nestor Cortes has been nothing short of phenomenal at Yankee Stadium this season(1.95 ERA, 0.82 WHIP). Perhaps most impressive is that he has allowed just 0.5 HR/9 in the Bronx despite the dimensions of that park and his fly-ball nature; he really does produce weak contact at an elite rate. The Guardians hit the 2nd fewest HR’s in baseball this season and have far too many weaklings to be trusted in this spot. More importantly, they have particularly struggled against left-handed pitching; since June 1st, this lineup ranks 27th in baseball with a measly 83 wRC+ vs lefties.
Guardians SP Shane Bieber looked good on Friday against the Rays, but I still feel as if he is getting priced for the pitcher he was a few years ago. Bieber is striking out hitters at a career-low rate in 2022 and has seen his velocity drop considerably. Most alarming, Bieber is allowing nearly 29% of balls to be hit 95+ mph. I don’t like how any of that translates against this dangerous Yankees lineup and in this “little league” ballpark.
The Guardians(on paper at least) have a better bullpen than the Yankees and will absolutely unload their best arms regardless of score in this must-win game. I don’t want to mess with that; I’ll isolate the matchup I feel best about and play the Yankees F5 -0.5 at a plus-price.
