I like a play in Game 1 of this year’s NLCS, and I will look to improve upon my 2-3-1 postseason record. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Padres ML(-115) vs Phillies–7:03 PM CT
Padres SP Yu Darvish enjoyed another dazzling season in San Diego, holding a 2.60 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at Petco Park this year. The Phillies have been downright bad on the road vs right-handed pitching for awhile now; since August 1st, the Phils hold a measly 79 wRC+ in this role, good for 26th in baseball. While they did get to lefty Max Fried in Atlanta last week, they were promptly shutout by righty Kyle Wright and the Braves bullpen in Game 2 of the NLDS, their last road game.
Phillies SP Zack Wheeler has not handled his road starts as good as you would think, holding a 1.20 road WHIP over each of the past 2 seasons. Now, Wheeler must make his 3rd straight road start of the postseason. The Padres’ lineup isn’t some dominant force, and I don’t particularly love the bottom of their order. Still, since August 1st, they hold an above average 105 wRC+ vs righties at home, giving them a pretty clear offensive advantage in this game.
A huge part of this play is the massive bullpen edge the Padres hold in the later innings. Philadelphia’s bullpen was bad all season, ranking 24th in the league in bullpen WHIP. It’s pretty amazing that they’ve made it this far with how bad their bullpen is. The Padres, on the other hand, have a borderline Top 5 bullpen in the game and have finally gotten Josh Hader back on track. This line should be more like Padres -130/-135 over the full game.
