The Padres weren’t able to come through for us last night, but I’m back today with a play in Game 1 of the ALCS. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Astros -1.5(+125) vs Yankees–6:37 PM CT
This is a terrible spot for the Yankees; their ALDS series with the Guardians went the distance, and due to the postponement of Monday night’s game, concluded last night. This is a quick turnaround facing a well-rested Astros team that quite frankly dominated the Yankees throughout the regular season.
Not only that, the Yankees must face a truly elite arm in Astros SP Justin Verlander. While Verlander struggled against the Mariners last week, he held impeccable numbers throughout the regular season(1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP) and is one of the easiest arms to back in baseball. Perhaps most impressive is that Verlander allowed HR’s at the lowest rate since 2010 after struggling with the long ball in past seasons. In addition to the potential “hangover” spot, the Yankees were underwhelming in this role down the stretch of the season, holding a poor 90 wRC+ vs righties on the road since August 1st.
Yankees SP Jameson Taillon is not a “postseason” caliber arm and will be starting today out of necessity. He struck out nearly 2 batters less on the road this year and allowed a staggering 1.7 HR/9 on the road this year as well. 5 separate projected starters for Houston hold an OPS above 1.000 off of Taillon, and this should be a spot where a consistent Astros lineup can take the top off of a vulnerable arm.
The Astros bullpen is clearly more rested for this game, but they also proved to be more reliable and deep down the stretch run of the season. The stars align for a play on the Astros -1.5 getting a solid +125 return.
