This line probably doesn’t make much sense to bettors; OKC has a better overall ATS record and ATS away record, they’ve had 4 days rest, and they have a better overall record than Denver. The Thunder have played very efficient basketball as of late, but I think they’re due for some negative regression.
Look what happened to them recently against the Lakers. LAL’s bigs locked down OKC’s offense and controlled the game, with Anthony Davis, Montrezl Harrell and Lebron James scoring over half of the Lakers’ total points. OKC can hang with and beat the likes of Chicago, Orlando, and New Orleans, but they struggle against elite teams.
The Nuggets, on the other hand, are due for some positive regression. Denver scores in bunches, virtually guaranteed 110-115 points per game (they average 115.2 ppg currently and they haven’t played their best basketball). I don’t think the Thunder can keep up. The Nuggets know they need to play better defense, too. This is a sneaky line from the books and we’re seeing right through it. I’m on the Nuggets side.
Pick: Nuggets -10 (-116), 1.5 units
