The play-in tournament games are kicking my ass a little, but that’s okay. Just like the regular season, which started off with me on a losing streak, we’ll recover and be back to our humming win percentage before you know it. Let’s start that tonight!
The Bets:
Pacers/Warriors 1Q over 60 (-115), 2 units,
Pacers/Warriors under 237.5 (-110), 1.5 units,
and Lean, Pacers +3 (-110):
I know what you’re thinking. It’s the play in tournament, aka the playoffs, and we can’t treat totals the same. Unders hit way more. You’re right and you may be right tonight and that’s usually true about any playoff game in a professional sport. Defenses tend to thrive and players’ nerves are sky-high; every moment counts when facing elimination. For the full game that’s the way I’m looking, too. Both of these teams realize how their offenses can overwhelm their opponents and how quickly they can score. Emotions and anxiety will be high and shots won’t come as easy as they usually do. I think this will all happen eventually, but not in the 1st quarter.
Indiana and Washington are mirrors of each other. Not only do the Pacers and Wizards both predicate their philosophies on offensive production (the Pacers are 6th and the Wizards are 3rd in points per game), but they both have flawed defenses and even more importantly, they both move at light speed. That’s usually almost always a sure-fire recipe for a big total. While the Pacers are 11th in defensive efficiency, a skewed stat with how high their totals usually go, they’re 25th in points allowed. Washington is dead last, allowing 118.5 ppg. In the first quarter of play (and perhaps the first half, take a look at that as well), we should see the same teams we always do. Sabonis and Westbrook and Brogdon and Beal all sprinting down the court and sinking shots from all around the field– I expect an entertaining and high octane start to the game.
I won’t officially choose a side tonight, I think the line is dead-on, but I’ll lean Indiana. I don’t love what I’ve seen from Washington lately. I’m sure Westbrook will explode at some point but he doesn’t seem like himself. His confidence is waning, the shot selection is poor, and he’s not attacking the rim like he usually does. Beal not being at 100% surely doesn’t help the Wizards chances either. The Pacers aren’t great on defense but they proved how scrappy they can be against the Hornets. They’ve also lost 3 straight times to the Wizards in the regular season. Paybacks are a bitch and they have considerably more momentum than their foe heading into this contest. If Westbrook has another bad game and/or if Beal continues to show signs of volatility, this might not be close.
Either way, this should be an entertaining game between two teams that, in actuality, barely deserve to be in the playoffs. Don’t expect either of these teams to compete with the 76ers in the first round, but if you’re looking for good drama and two explosive offenses, Thursday’s game should deliver.
