Most casual racing fans know about the Triple Crown and the pageantry and prestige that surrounds three Saturdays in late spring. Full time fans and bettors know there’s great action and big cards to be had year round. This weekend is one of the biggest, The 2022 Pegasus World Cup and its under card. The event is hosted at Gulfstream Park. It features turf races, dirt races and synthetic races on the Tapeta. If you plan on watching tomorrow I suggest trying to get the racetrack feed as Peter Aiello, the track announcer, is the best voice in the business.
I’ve got analysis and picks for races 5-12 below which are all stakes races. Lots of big fields with chances for some big payouts. I will list my picks to win for each race and then also what my top 4 or 5 are for exotics if you plan on getting involved in those.
Here we go…
Race 5 – La Prevoyante Stakes -Grade III – 1 1/2 Miles (TURF). Purse: $150,000. Post Time – 12:27 PM CST
The first race is a long 1.5 miles on the turf and doesn’t have any really big sprinters to lead them out here so this should be a pretty tight bunch heading towards home. I expect the two favorites to be heavily in play here as both should be in good stalking position. Todd Pletcher who is winning at a ridiculous 42% clip during this meet will run out the 4 horse Always Shopping and Christopher Clemente will have the 6 horse Beautiful Lover. This pair has two head to head races in last 3 months with each finishing ahead of the other once. If the pace does get pushed extra early I could see the 8 Horse Hungry Kitten also sneaking into this one, but I think this is between the two favorites. Likely will see an Exacta here of 4,6/1,4,6,8 on this one.
To Win: 6 Beautiful Lover, 4 Always Shopping
Exotics: 6-4-8-1
Race 6 – Handicap – 1m 70 Yards – (TABETA SYNTHETIC) Purse: $70,000. Post Time 12:57 PM CST
4 Horse Frosted Over is the favorite here having run successfully on this turf and stepping down in distance. He will have some speed out ahead of him in this one as I expect the 2 Horse Wolfie’s Dynaghost to get to the front and try and stay there. Ultimately I think he will fade. The 7 Horse Telephone Talker should also move to the front and he has the stamina to stay to the end. This could open the door for a horse who hasn’t run as well yet on the synthetic the 11 Horse Tiesto. He is reunited with Junior Alvarado who took him on his best trip this year and could be able to stalk, stay within 3-4 lengths and come ahead at the end here. I will try the 11 and likely some trifectas with the exotic line below.
To Win: I like the 11 Tiesto
Exotics: 11-4-7-5
Race 7 – W.L. McKnight Stakes – Grade III – 1 1/2 Miles (TURF). Purse $200,000. Post Time 1:31 PM CST
A mile and a half again on turf here. Unlike the 5th race this one looks to have some early speed for such a long race. The 2 Horse Abaan the favorite on the morning line will certainly try and take the lead and go coast to coast. He did so in his last race at 2 miles so the distance wont be a problem. He should be pushed early by the 1 Horse Temple who will be looking to avoid getting pinched inside. This early pace could open the door for some closers like the 6 Horse Bama Breeze, 8 Horse Baker’s Bay and 9 Horse Gylnn County. Glynn County has stuggled last few times out and is coming off a short layoff after a bad last run in October so I will be fading him. I like Bama Breeze to get it done. I like the exacta here, but will sprinkle a win/place on the 6.
To Win: 6 Bama Breeze
Exotics 6-10-1-8
Race 8 – Inside Information Stakes – Grade II – 7 Furlongs (Dirt). Purse $200,000. Post Time 2:03 PM CST
This race is wide open as 6 horses have a morning line of 8-1 or better. This race should see the 2 Horse AG Indy who has been dominating at 5 and 6 furlongs on the west coast lead out in a big way. He is going to try and get the lead and hold on. He should be pressured by the 8 Horse Just One Time who is the favorite and the 7 Horse Jakarta. The 3 Horse Dance d’oro and 5 Horse Four Graces should be waiting just behind when they early leaders get to the stretch. I also am going to keep my eye on the 1 Horse Family Time who took a liking to Gulfstream a few weeks ago and ran his best race ever at a mile.
To Win: 2 AG Indy
Exotics 2-3-5-1-8
Race 9 – TAA Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Invitational Stakes Presented by Pepsi- Grade III – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf). Purse $500,000. 2:26 PM CST
The ladies take to the turf and I expect speed here from the 9 Horse Shifty She and the 1 Horse Sweet Melania. Favorite is the Chad Brown trained 4 Horse Regal Glory who should get a great view of the action in front of her and be ready to close this one out. 8 Horse Summer in Saratoga is a winner in her last three races at this distance or greater and should close well in this race. The 3 Horse Lady Speightspeare won 4 straight before getting upset in her last trip and has times just as fast as the favorites. She could sneak into this one as well. Good race for exotics.
To Win: 3 Lady Speightspeare
Exotics: 3-4-8-9
Race 10 – Fred W. Hooper Stakes Presented by Hill ‘N’ Dale Farms at Xalapa – Grade III – 1 Mile (Dirt). Purse $150,000. Post Time: 3:12 PM CST
Trainer Bill Mott saddles the favorite 8 Horse Speaker’s Corner here who has been impressive outside of a Grade I trip in September where he was overwhelmed. I expect him to be near the front and has the strength to take the full mile here wire to wire. Challenging him should be the 9 Horse Girolamo’s Attack, 7 Horse Dennis’ Moment, and 6 Horse Liam. I don’t fancy the 1 Horse Fearless here who opens at 5-2 and will likely struggle out of the inside draw.
To Win: 8 Speaker’s Corner
Exotics: 8-7-6-9
Race 11 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes Presented by Baccarat – Grade I – 1 1/8 Miles (Turf). Purse $1,000,000. Post Time 3:49 CST
Todd Pletcher has rider Irad Ortiz Jr. back on last years champion of this race and early favorite 6 Horse Colonel Liam. This horse and jockey combo are a perfect 4 for 4 in wins since December 2020. However Colonel Liam has not run since Belmont in June. The big question here is how will he respond after the layoff. Pletcher also has the second favorite in 12 Horse Never Surprised who is taking a step up in class here. I don’t see a lot of value in the inside 4 horses and continue to find myself looking at the 5 Horse Hit The Road who while not winning has been impressive last two times out finishing third behind Mo Forza and Smooth Like Strait in Grade 2 affairs. My only concern on him is the distance as he will be going the extra 1/8 mile for the first time. 7 Horse Doswell ran a great race at this distance last time out and if he repeats it will be in the mix. 8 Horse Sacred Life trained by Chad Brown should also be in great position right by Colonel Liam as long as he doesn’t get burned out chasing the pace setters too quick. This one is fairly wide open so I’ll be rolling with some exactas and trifectas on this one for certain.
To Win: 5 Hit the Road, 8 Sacred Life
Exotics: 5-8-6-7-12
Race 12 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Presented by 1/ST BET – Grade I – 1 1/8 Miles – (Dirt). Purse $3,000,000. Post Time 4:34 PM CST
This is it. The Big one. It features the two best horses from The Breeder’s Cup in November going head to head for all the carrots. Breeder’s Cup Classic Champion 1 Horse Knicks Go waited until turning 4 years old before shocking the world and becoming the most dominant racing horse of the last two years. He has won 8 of 10 races since the start of 2020 most of them wire to wire. The only losses occurred where he got shuffled back in the first turn after not breaking clean. I could potentially see that happening here without a clean break from the 1 post. 4 Horse Life is Good is The Breeder’s Cup Mile Champion has won 5 of 6 career starts with the only loss by a neck in a Grade I 7 Furlong race at Santa Anita in August. This will be his first trip up to the 1 1/8 Mile distance. Outside of those two who could make some noise? I am struggling to make a case for any of these other horses. The ones that have raced them have all finished at least 10 lengths back and the newcomers are for the most part coming up in class or distance to make a challenge. Forced to pick some I will look at the 8 Horse Endorsed and the 7 Horse Title Ready. My advice here is the 1 or 4 is going to win. Use them as the end of Pick 3s and Pick 4s. There’s not much value outside of that.
To Win: 1 Knicks Go, 4 Life is Good
Exotics 1-4-8-7
