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Mississippi St at Missouri -3.5 (O/U 138.5)
Mississippi St comes off a gutted out OT victory vs in state rival Ole Miss, where they committed a season high 19 turnovers. That department will be key Tuesday night when facing a Mizzou defense who has the ability to force quite an amount of them. In the Bulldogs previous four games they had 11 or less TO’s, all below their season average of 12.8 a game.
January 25th they blew a 7 point lead at half, vs at one point #1 ranked Alabama, but that seemed to be the turning point in their season. Since then, the Bulldogs are winners of 6 of 7, and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8. In those 8 games, they have held opponents to 38% shooting and 6 of the 8 to 66 points or less. In that span they have 3 road wins, which leads to all those great away records. 4-4 SU away, 3-1 SU in neutral territory, 6-2 ATS away, 3-1 ATS away off a win and a lovely 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a win!
State has won 9 of the last 10 match-ups vs Mizzou, including the last two games in Mizzou’s building resulting in outright wins as dogs in both. They held Mizzou to 32% shooting just 17 days ago, now the Tigers come off two losses shooting a combined 35%. This doesn’t bode well for Mizzou facing a Mississippi St defense who gives up 38% shooting and 30% from 3 on the season.
We know Mizzou can shoot the rock, but those stats are very skewed vs BAD teams. Mizzou is truly a bad favorite for many reasons. The Bulldogs are going to hit the glass hard tonight, averaging 11.5 offensive rebounds a game. Now face a Tiger squad giving up 12.8 a game in their last 5. Turnovers and rebounds will ultimately be the difference tonight. I believe this is a great spot for Mississippi St and will be a unit upgrade for me!
Mississippi St +3.5 (DraftKings -110) 1.5 units
Indiana at Michigan St -3 (O/U 137)
The Spartans head home off an emotional loss vs in state rival Michigan, yet another game they led at halftime. They sure are happy to be home, where they play some unbelievable defense. Which will be much needed vs 17th ranked Indiana who has the ability to score and do it often. This Michigan St defense, only gives up 29% from 3, with it dropping to an improbable 22.9% at home. As well as giving up 29.2 points on average in the first half, with this dropping to 24.8 at home! The Spartan offense shoots 37% from 3, ranking them 45th in the country 3% above the national average. This will jump as well, shooting 40% from 3 at home and averaging 17.7 assists per game.
In their last meeting at Indiana, the Hoosiers came away with a 13 point victory, managing to shoot an incredible 60% from three. Pulling off anything close to that would be quite a feat, I believe closer to impossible since the Hoosiers don’t exactly play the same on the road. They’re just 2-7 ATS away, 2-5 ATS off a win away, are 1-4 as 4.5 point dogs or less and 5-10 ATS on two days rest.
I believe we will get a Spartan team looking to fly out of the gate, they are 6-3 ATS off a loss and have a tendency to be leading at halftime. They have been ahead at half in 6 of their last 8, three in a row at home, as well as 4 straight. On the flip side, the Hoosiers tend to be behind at half, being down at half in 4 of 6 and 3 straight on the road. So we will take the Spartans in the first half tonight!
1H: Michigan St -1.5 (DraftKings -110) 1 unit
Good luck to anyone tailing, lets make the first NCAA basketball article a winning one!
