Wyoming at UNLV -3 O/U 49.5, 10:45pm ET
If you read my article last Friday, one would assume I am back on the Cowboys with those crazy Friday night trends. Well, what happens in life when you assume? I have learned in my later years you make an a** out of yourself. So, your assumption would be incorrect. UNLV is a different animal. Rebels head coach Barry Odom in his first year at UNLV has resurrected this institution. Sporting a 7-2 SU record, with losses to conference leader Fresno St (also defending conference champs) and a 4 TD defeat to #1 ranked Michigan. Also, more importantly since we gamble, yes, it’s what we do, 8-1 ATS. These boys bring it every week. The only concern would be it’s their first Friday night game of the season, so we have no real history to go off this year. Yet I believe what cancels that out is, it’s their first home game since Oct 21st, and only 2nd home game since September! How, don’t ask me, scheduling at its finest. I do expect the Rebels to show up with high intensity for this game with their sights set on a conference championship (yes, with a little help), and possibly a New Years Six bowl game. Each game is GIGANTIC all the way out, but landing coach Bohl’s Pokes on a Friday night as we have learned is not a good thing. He always has his boys ready to roll for these primetime games. Again, canceling that out, would be it’s on the road where he has historically struggled, back-to-back Fridays, coming off a win and playing a team with a distinct talent advantage. All combine for a UNLV win and cover.
Let’s talk about some X’s and O’s. We know UNLV can run the football superbly well, hence their 7-2 record, but I think Maiva complements this offense perfectly with his ability to escape the pocket and throw the ball down the field. He is averaging 8.8 YPA, and 12.8 yards per completion. Combined with his targets having an enormous height advantage, big plays could be at his disposal all night Friday. He is 6-1 as their starter, and has 10 TD’s-4 INT’s this season, with 2 of the picks versus Fresno late. With all that said, still expect UNLV to run the ball down their throat for most of this game. Averaging 191 rushing yards per game will bode well facing a Wyoming defense giving up 4.9 yards per rush and 175y per game. UNLV has been very good on 3rd down in 2023, converting at 52% ranking them 6th in the country. Again, facing a defense that gives up 44% on 3rd down, even after last week’s defense stopping CSU to 0/10 on 3rd down could mean a distinct time of possession advantage to UNLV.
Now how to stop the Cowboys? UNLV has been very good against the run in 2023, yes they have had their moments, but their #1 goal Friday night is to stop Harrison Waylee. Which will put the ball in Andrew Peasley’s hands, who is one bad decision away from an INT at any time. UNLV defense ranks 10th in the country at INTs per game at 1.3. Getting him in 3rd and longs, where I foresee them being a lot throughout the night, could mean 3 and outs, or even better, turnovers!
The main concern for UNLV is their inability to covert TDs in the red zone, but this is where the big plays will come into play. The Runnin Rebels had three TD’s last week vs New Mexico of 30 yards or more, 1 the week before versus Fresno St and three versus Nevada 4 games back.
Don’t sweat the steam coming in on Wyoming, the public sees the trends, the public largely backed Wyoming last week and couldn’t resist taking them again this week getting 5/6 points. We will take UNLV tonight minus the 3, for a unit upgrade!
UNLV -3 (BetMGM -110) to win 2u
