Today we have an interesting match up between Man U and Brentford. Historically speaking we wouldn’t even glance at any other side but Man U. This isn’t the same Man U we are used to and believe it or not Brentford has been hot. A shot at real value is very much in play today.
Soccer Record: 52-59 +3.73 Units
Brentford ML (+370) and Draw (+290) 1 Unit each
Let’s start by doing the math on this style of betting. Brentford’s line is currently +0.75 (-113). This bet would cover you for both the draw and/or if Brentford wins. To win 2 Units on this bet you would have to lay 226 (using 100 per unit) to return you +200. Laying 100 each on the ML and Draw out right would return you either +270 or +190. So in my eyes we are getting greater value by not having to put in the juice and having more upside on the ML. Likewise, if Man U wins outright… you can not push on the spread and you would be down -226 vs -200. Remember with this kind of value it is all relative if you were to try and win 1 Unit back with the spread and place half units on each ML and Draw. DM me your thoughts and perspectives.
Now why I like Brentford in this spot is simple, Manchester United has simply no identity. They can now only rely on one player and one player only; yes he is a god but it has not been a recipe for success as of late. Obviously that of Christiano Ronaldo. He without a doubt has been the ONLY reason this club has stayed in games. In the last 9 matches dating back to March 6th Man U has played (including other conference games), they are 2-2-5. In that 9 game stretch they have scored a total of 10 goals, with 7 of the 10 coming from Ronaldo. Yes, it is great when it works, but those 2 wins come off of Ronaldo hat tricks. If he isn’t scoring multiple goals a game…. Manchester United simply does not have the fire power to keep up.
Brentford since March 7th is carrying a record of 5-1-1. They are hot with two of those matches coming with a 4-1 win over Chelsea and a 0-0 draw against Tottenham; not exactly slouches. We look back to win Man U and Brentford matched up on January 19th. Man U was hot and one of the best in the league, the same could not be said for Brentford. The line for that match was Man U -130 on the road and winning 3-1. The script has since flipped, Man U at home now 3.5 months later and still only -130 favorites. I can not trust a one dimensional team such as them at this moment. Especially when the value is too great on the other side. It is a big if, but if Brentford limits Ronaldo’s production we will be in for a nice day.
