If you didn’t see it on Twitter you’re seeing it now — we’re 11-2 in MLB Leans the last week, lol. That figures. We stop betting on baseball and then we hit a stride. Ah well. Gonna keep on making them “leans” because that’s what’s working and I don’t want that smoke again, but how annoying is that shit?
Anyway, onto today’s leans, added more thoughts/picks in WNBA, and we have some CFL Picks in for this week, too!
Today’s MLB Leans:
Padres/Marlins under 7.5 (-115)
Cubs/Nats under 8.5 (-115)
Astros (-128)
WNBA Picks (29-10-1, +9.62 units):
Sky -7 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Sky haven’t been stellar but it’s time for them to turn up the heat and when they do, at home, there’s little chance that the Liberty can keep up. The Liberty fought hard to get here but, let’s be honest, they got a little luck, a lot of Sabrina, and probably some fortunate regression from their opponents. Now that we’re in the postseason, the Sky are on a newfound revenge tour to reign as champions once again. I expect the best out of Chicago in Game 1 and I think they win n big fashion.
Mercury/Aces over 167.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Highest Scoring Half: 2nd (-121), to win 1 unit
I think -14 is a bit too high, but the Aces have been pedal to the medal on offense, scoring with pace and never letting off the gas. They’ve also allowed plenty of their opponents to chase all game. Love the over here. Normally we don’t play on 1st/2nd half scoring bets but in this case it seems appropriate. Especially against subpar teams, the Aces can start slow in these situations. Then, predictably, they light it up in the second half. Five out of their last six games have seen the Aces score significantly more points in the 2nd half, so we’ll go with a small bet on the 3rd and 4th eclipsing the 1st and 2nd total.
Wings +10 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a pure numbers play — 10 just feels too big for a formidable Wings team that can play defense. The Sun own a prolific offense but this is the playoffs. Taking the dog.
CFL Week 11 Picks (17-11, +5.95 units):
BC Lions/Saskatchewan Roughriders over 51.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Lions are averaging 39 ppg over their last 3 contests and I see no reason to fade them in this spot. I also don’t see any reason to not love the total. Again, this is an example of pondering regression. Will BC ever slow down and will we see a lower scoring game? Maybe. But that was the story last time these two teams faced. The Roughriders only put up 17 points, amounting to their 2nd lowest scoring output all season. At home in a revenge game, I expect SSK to come out more aggressive. They have a formidable run game and unfortunately, a mediocre defense that won’t be able to stop BC unless BC stops themselves. This has another over-feel and the ancillary reasons add up.
Calgary Stampeders ML (-130), to win 2 units
At 4-4 the Toronto Argonauts sit atop the East Conference and normally that would mean something– in this game it does not. The West is clearly the more dominant half of Canadian Football and the Stampeders are now reeling, again, after another disappointing loss to the Lions last week. BC just keeps pouring it on teams and until their rhythm breaks it won’t be surprising watching them win and win. That’s not the case for Toronto. Toronto doesn’t possess the ball and they rank either mid-tier or bottom-tier in nearly every category that counts on offense and defense. Calgary is still a top 3 team from our perspective, they do a lot of things right, and luck should regress to their side in this contest. Calgary doesn’t get penalized often, they protect their QB, and they’re rock solid on both sides of the ball. Get it done, Stampeders!
