Nice 4-1 night in premium picks– more of that incoming. Just sticking with Wisconsin today in CBB.
NBA:
Heat -4.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Heat -4 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Thunder are actually pretty good– they facilitate the ball well, they rebound well, they have a true star in SGA, and they have sneaky good contributors at the rim. They’re also not a very good shooting team. They’re just not, and they’re the perfect team for the Heat to expose at home, especially after a loss at home against Brooklyn. With that still on their minds, I expect Miami to take it out on OKC. Jimmy, Tyler, and Bam should all play, even though that sneaky injury report is always annoyingly unpredictable. Doubling down on the Heat play– I love Jimmy Butler’s call to action after the Nets’ debacle. Miami will take care of business.
Pistons 1Q under 26.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
Pistons TT under 107.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Pistons will play tomorrow night back at home, which creates a really tough travel spot. They faced this same Sixers team on Sunday, now they’re at Philly, and then they have to go back home to face the Timberwolves. With injuries riddling their lineup and not much to play for, it’s likely they’ll have to face Joel Embiid tonight, too, who just got upgraded to questionable. Detroit is in a tough spot and they’re among the lower scoring 1st quarter teams in the NBA. I like a slow start and a slower overall scoring day from a bad Detroit offense.
Lean, Raptors -7.5
The Raptors are playing much better defensively but let’s watch and see how they compete against the Hornets tonight. Charlotte isn’t a good team but they obviously found a rhythm against the Bucks the other night and Toronto has struggled with teams that fit the same profile as CHA (fast paced, small, transition attackers like IND/GS/MEM).
Donovan Mitchell PAR over 36.5 (-120), to win 1.5 units
Mitchell’s points and PAR have cooled down since his insane 71 point performance against the Bulls. Mitchell was given one game off in between that huge game and his PAR has been lower recently as the Cavs were working Darius Garland back into the lineup. Mitchell will care not about Garland as he returns to his ex-team in Utah and I think he’ll take advantage of a banged up Jazz team on the road. Tougher spot for Cleveland, too, so ancillary players may not have the same motivation, meaning more will be put on his shoulders for the win.
CBB:
Wisconsin -1 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This is a much better spot for the Badgers, off a bad loss to a high-octane Illinois offense, coming back home to face a familiar and similar foe. Both of these squads are slow paced and they win with defense. This game should proceed nice and slow, which will be an advantage for Wisconsin. Michigan State just finished a gritty defensive game against Michigan. Two of those in a row- that’s rough. Wisconsin takes it.
