Shitty Thursday but that’s why we had low exposure and that’s why we avoid betting on choke-artist 19 year olds, for the most part. Texas? UVA? Gross.
Hopefully you saw my early premiums last night but it turns out, these lines didn’t move much anyway so you should be good to get most of these. A few angles I really like tonight, let’s get to it:
NBA Picks:
- MINN/ORL over 233, 2 units
- Absolutely no chance I can’t not take the over here. The Magic run at a hyper-fast pace and the Minnesota offense has been putting up nearly 130 ppg recently. Orlando has had some low-yield, low-scoring games the past week but these two tempo teams should only cultivate one another. And despite Minnesota probably being due some negative regression eventually, is THIS the spot against the mealy-mouth Magic? Na. I don’t see how this doesn’t go over – I have this at 242! Trust in the T-Wolves!
- Knicks +9.5, 1 unit
- The Knicks have become a play-on team for me and here’s why: they remind me of the Knicks of last year: sticking to blue collar defense, 2 point basketball, and max-effort every game. The Grizzlies are one of the best teams in the NBA but the Knicks are way more motivated here. 9.5 is too many points. Their last 3 wins must give them renewed confidence.
- Lean, Hawks -6 (they need to get right)
- Lean, Celtics -14 (why the hell not? They’ve been DOMINANT)
- Hornets -1.5 (but up to -7), 2.5 units
- I was able to somehow snag this at -1.5 somehow, which feels like cheating, but there’s NO WAY I can’t take the Hornets here. McCollum is out, Ingram is out, and without their two stars the Pelicans surge is officially over. The Hornets desperately need wins and this should be a perfect opportunity for them to overwhelm a weakened New Orleans’ unit.
- Suns -6, 1 unit
- As much as I like the Raptors, the version I’m seeing of the Suns lately (even without CP3) has been VERY impressive. I can’t play off the Suns right now and this feels like a major difference in class. Phoenix, at home, in rhythm – VanFleet and Trent Jr. better put on a show if they want to stay in this one. Moved this down to only 1 unit since Toronto could be feisty here, purely based on motivation to move up the rankings.
- Heat -5.5, 1.5 units
- Yea we’re playing the Heat here. Jimmy Butler should return (this is not a guarantee and we may pull out of this bet if he doesn’t play- buyer beware) and Miami is coming off that HORRENDOUS and embarrassing loss to the Suns at home. This a major get-right game for the Heat and the Cavs are no match for a motivated Miami unit. I’d take this up to 6 with Jimmy in.
CBB Picks (all 1 unit):
- Illinois -5
- Cincinnati +12
- Wisconsin -2
- UCONN +3.5
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
