Shitty all around performance yesterday. Incredibly bad beats with the Montana St TT under and the Knicks not covering, not to mention a push in the IND/HOU game. Yikes. Maybe I pissed off Zeus or something.
It gets real easy to overthink days like Friday. I won’t do it and you shouldn’t either. We’re missing out on some edges and we’re overvaluing others. Lessons learned, onto a new day. Let’s start this weekend with some wins.
NBA Picks:
- Bucks/Timberwolves 1Q over 61, 1.5 units
- Bucks/Timberwolves 1H over 122, 1.5 units
- I could see this game slowing down, especially if Milwaukee plays the kind of defense they’re capable of later in the contest, but these are two of the highest scoring 1Q and 1H teams in the NBA. Both teams like to start off explosive and with pace. Games like this, between two surging teams who will be in the postseason, tend to slow down or get more defensive towards the end. I wouldn’t play over 62.5 or 123.5. Look for these lines live if the Gods are still pissed at me and this game starts slow.
- Hornets ML (+105) to win 1.5 units
- This is a really, really bad spot for the Mavericks on a B2B after a tiring and humbling loss against Philly last night. Now, no doubt exhausted, Dallas has to face a Charlotte team that’s finding its groove and plays with intense speed and output. I don’t like that for the typically slow-paced, methodical style of Luka and the Mavs. I suspect Charlotte may become the favorite before tipoff.
- Lean, Lakers ML – If LeBron plays, I guess they should win?
CBB Picks:
- North Carolina +5.5, 1 unit
- The dogs have been barking and I’m choosing to buy on the Tar Heels, for now. Baylor is one of the premiere teams in the country, no doubt, but NC looks their best version as of late and instead of second-guessing that and waiting for them to choke, why not ride the hot hand? The Tar Heels have the talent to beat anyone in college basketball – I have to bet they keep this close.
- Michigan/Tennessee under 136.5, 1 unit
- This total is too high for me – I have it at 131.5, and this just feels like a defensive battle, doesn’t it? Michigan impressed in the first round against an explosive Colorado State offense and lord knows the Volunteers are consistently a lock-down D.
- St. Peter’s +9, 1 unit
- Maybe I’m just playing on a good story here but St. Peter’s showed a TON against one of the best teams in the country in round 1. Momentum alone should carry them to the belief that they can hang in this game and/or win it. Murray St. is better than people think, but I think they’re slightly inflated here. My line has this at -7.5.
UFC Picks:
- Tom Aspinal (-140), to win 1 unit
- Arnold Allen (-120), to win 1 unit
- Paddy Pimblett in round 2 (+400, 1 unit to win 4)
- Cory McKenna wins inside distance (+275, 1 unit to win 2.75)
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
