A few points to make this morning, after such a shitty, shitty day.
- It’s really easy to overreact after days like yesterday. I considered not having any plays today and I considered taking a break until I decided I shouldn’t. In my experience, an idle mind never helps anything, and we shouldn’t overly question ourselves.
- The reality is: the Heat were the right side, period. Everything was in their favor, and the line movement and the closing line value we got was absurd. I would have bet that same wager 100 times out of 100.
- This is why it’s integral that we should never declare that ANY bet is a “lock.” Those do not exist, especially not in professional sports.
- It’s also a major reason why none of us should ever over-invest in any one wager. Bankroll management is a fundamental key to long-term success.
For the record, we’re still hitting at 57% and we’re still close to +80 units this season. We’ve been spoiled. Let’s try to spoil ourselves some more today.
NBA Picks:
- Lean, Magic -7.5
- I won’t bet this, but the line movement here is weird. There’s substantially more bets and more money on the Warriors, yet the line has moved down in favor of Orlando. This reverse line-movement is usually indicative of something the sportsbooks know that we don’t, and they’re trying to capitalize and make money off it. I wouldn’t bet on GS here.
- Hawks/Knicks under 226.5, 1.5 units
- The books are over-adjusting this total. In 3 previous games, the Hawks and Knicks have produced 225, 188, and 189 points. Two of those three games were way under, and this line is attempting to match the one over that hit in the 225 point game. In the one game that went over, both teams shot 50% from the field and it still fell under tonight’s total. The Hawks and Knicks match up well on defense and both teams know they can’t allow the other squad to get hot from beyond the arc. This will be a battle between two teams vying for a spot in the playoffs – I gotta love the under.
- Bulls +6.5, 1 unit
- This is a tough spot for the Bulls but at second glance, it’s not THAT tough. Milwaukee isn’t far from Chicago and that was a nice win last night for a Chicago team that’s trying to find its identity and more consistency. Chicago can be deadly from beyond the arc, Middleton won’t be in this contest, and there’s a chance that Giannis sits too. This is a big-time conference game and I think it means way more to the Bulls.
- Clippers +6.5, 1 unit
- Every game between these two western conference rivals has been close, and LAC has covered all 3 previous contests. These teams match up well on both sides of the court, and LAC needs to win just as much as Denver wants to keep winning. The Clippers defense continues to be elite, top 10 all year, and they’re well coached and more predictable than most NBA teams. I’ll take the away dog tonight for 1 unit.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
