What’s up my people! I’m up early and ready to motherfucking go – a little amped waking up knowing I lost that parlay (Yes I went to bed early like an old man, yes I’m talking about UCONN. What are you kidding me, Huskies? Beat Creighton for once in your life!). Can’t be mad about a 3-1 day in the association, though; 2-1 officially since we don’t count props as either wins or losses. 2-1 in CBB too, not too shabby.
Onto Thursday! Let’s keep moving these lines!
NBA Picks:
- Grizzlies/Celtics under 224.5, 1.5 units
- I’m as amazed as anyone with Ja Morant and the Grizzlies, so much that I put down a futures bet at +2800 for Memphis to win it all. But from what I’ve seen from this Boston defense as of late, I’ll need a team to PROVE they can get into the front court and maneuver around their elite group. This should be really good TV, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Celtics win outright. Remember, Boston’s defense is literally perfect against a team like Memphis because of how they defend the paint. We’ll see what the result is, but I expect a hard-fought game and a lower total. I’d play this down to 220.
- Warriors/Mavericks under 219, 2 units
- The most recent version of the Warriors seems to run at the pace of their opponent. That’s why we saw inflated totals in their games against Minnesota, Portland, and LAL in the last few games. Those were also teams with very mediocre defenses. Neither of those apply to Dallas. The Mavericks run at one of the slowest paces in the NBA (in fact, they’re THE slowest paced team over their last 10 games), and they’re the #2 rated defense since Jan 1. The Warriors have struggled on defense recently, but the Mavericks are a team they can slow down. The Mavs have little talent in the paint and they’re overly-reliant on outside shooters; this is a good spot for the Golden State defense to get-right. I love this to fly under. I’d play this down to 216 – I have it at 212.
- Spurs -6.5, 1 unit
- Not a great line for a team that we don’t love to depend on, but look at what happened to the piss-poor Kings against the Pelicans last night (realllllly wish I just bit on the Pelicans side) – yikes! And now Sacramento is on a back to back, on the road, against a well-rested San Antonio team looking for a playoff spot and in desperate need of a win after 2 straight losses? I have to like the Spurs here, and their ability to roll down the court in fast breaks should give them an edge against a Kings’ team that gives very little resistance and will only cultivate the Spurs’ offense with their tempo. I wouldn’t take it beyond this number, it’s a little high, but I like SAS to roll.
CBB Picks: (all 1 unit):
- UT Arlington +3.5:
- UT Arlington won both of their two previous contests and they’re the more experienced team.
- Lehigh ML:
- They’ve been more consistent than Army on offense, especially in recent games. I’ll go with the PA mountain team to take a W.
- Michigan -2:
- Big game for the Wolverines, more experience at coaching, more size– this is Michigan’s game to control and I think they step up and cover.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
