What’s up team! HELL of a finish to our NBA regular season! 2-0 Sunday, 4-0 weekend, and hitting at a solid 56% for +73 units overall. We hit at 58% last season, giving us a career NBA record of 57%. Below are our first playoff bet and a series wager to boot.
Clearly my MLB bets have some work but it’s the start of the season, no reason to panic. I’ve also been abundantly clear – although I have solid ROI and a winning record in MLB, it isn’t my specialty. Then again, our previous record and ROI have matched those who call MLB their expertise, so there’s that. Bottom line – we’ll evolve together and eventually the wins will start piling on. I’ll aim for the genesis of that today.
NBA:
- Bulls/Bucks: Bucks win series in 4 games (+380 at DK),
- If there’s any series I’m confident about, it’s this one. It’s well documented by now – the Bulls just can’t beat exceptional teams. They’ve been horrendous since the All Star break, on both offense and defense, and they’re banged up heading into the postseason. Meanwhile the Bucks, in my opinion, are the best team in the East and my favorite to win the title again (+500, another bet I took). Winning 4 straight games sounds like a leap for any team in the playoffs, but thankfully you only play 1 game at a time. The Bucks will have massive advantages in every contest and unless the Bulls go on some wildly lucky shooting streak, Giannis and a lock-down Bucks defense should comfortably win every game. We’re hitting this number on the champs earning a 4-0 series sweep in round 1.
- Cavs/Nets under 229.5, 1.5 units
- We’ve talked at length about totals in the NBA playoffs and how they decrease. Not only do totals decrease, but so does tempo. The only chance CLE has to stay in this contest is to slow it down and play their brand of basketball. Their defense has sharpened over the last week or so, looking more like the unit we saw earlier in the season, and the Nets have certainly shown a new gear on defense, too. This line is right, it has to be higher because of Brooklyn’s potential on offense, but if the Cavs can slow this game down even a tiny bit, this will fall way below 230. If it starts off fast, look to live bet the under when it inflates. The action will almost certainly slow down in the 4th.
MLB:
- Brewers -1.5 (+105), 1 unit
- Milwaukee was one of the best run line teams in the MLB last season; Baltimore was one of the worst. Historically the Orioles have struggled with Zimmerman on the mound, while the Brewers have thrived with Houser. It’ll be a beautiful day in Baltimore (I should know) and a perfect opportunity for the Brewers to rediscover their bats. Milwaukee is an NL favorite for a reason – I think they take care of business in a big way today.
- Blue Jays First 5 -0.5 (+115), 1 unit
- James Taillon was a solid enough pitcher for NYY last season (4.3 ERA, 4.43 FIP), but he also has a proclivity to allow too many homeruns (1.50/9 innings last season). Alex Manoah is an up-and-coming young gun who showed signs of brilliance in 2021. He also has a good history against the Yankees. The 6’6″ former 1st round pick is in a big spot, but we think he can handle it. Toronto’s big bats can have their way with Taillon, too. First 5 goes to the Jays.
- Mariners (+105), 1 unit
- Ask me how much I trust Dylan Bundy, go ahead ask me. Answer: I might be more confident putting a broom out there instead. Alright, he’s not that shitty, but he’s pretty shitty. Not a pitcher we can count on, the Twins hope to win this matchup with their bats but I don’t trust it. Chris Flexen has been a solid performer for Seattle and the Mariners have shown why they’re one of the more exciting teams in MLB already. Equipped with a lot of young talent, this is going to be a feisty squad all year. I’ll take a shot at Seattle getting a road win.
