We’re catching a groove in MLB; can’t say the Hornets EVER caught a groove last night. Onto today’s picks and our lookahead picks for Friday.
NBA Picks (Friday):
- Hawks -2.5, to win 1.5 units
- I just can’t trust the Cavs and Atlanta’s playoff experience certainly showed itself last night in that big win. I expect the Cavs to offer more resistance (Charlotte’s defense was non-existent), but Atlanta’s bested this team 3 times and recently by margin. The bottom line here is that Atlanta just has more gifted shooters than Cleveland. Under pressure, that’s a big deal. You need confidence in these intense environments and it was obvious that Atlanta had plenty Wednesday night. I really liked the play of ATL’s bigs too, who played more aggressive and determined. It doesn’t matter if the Cavs front court has success, and it doesn’t matter if Jarrett Allen returns either. Not for me. Trae and a crisp perimeter offense should roll here. All Hawks for me.
- Parlay: Clippers ML + under 216.5, 1 unit to win 1.97 units
- Even in a loss, there was A LOT to like about the Clippers Tuesday night and this is a correlated parlay that makes sense. The Pelicans slowed down their play-in game tremendously, and no team will cover the Pelicans’ stars better than LAC. The talent of the Clippers’ wing defenders is exceptional, and for a team like New Orleans that doesn’t rely on 3 pointers (unlike Minnesota, which ultimately killed the Clippers), this is in LAC’s wheelhouse to dominate. The line is very sharp, so let’s capitalize on a home team, with more rest, who looked incredibly sharp Tuesday and probably should have won that game. It’s too early for the Pelicans to ascend.
MLB Picks:
- Brewers -1.5, 1 unit to win 1.35
- The Brewers are finding their rhythm and there’s a lot of fake news coming out of St. Louis. The Cards just won a series against Pittsburgh (slow clap) and snagged a win 2 days ago against KC (yawn). Wainwright had a phenomenal opening start to the season, so it’s reasonable to assume the old hag will see some negative regression today. Brandon Woodruff got BLASTED in his first start but make no mistake about it, he’s still one of the best starters in MLB. Expect a big rebound from him and a Brewers win by margin. A look at an NRFI or a first 5 under/MIL win isn’t a bad idea either.
- Cubs/Rockies over 11, 1.1 units to win 1
- Justin Steele is a solid young prospect but he got whacked in his last contest against Colorado. The Rockies look ultra confident in their bats right now; they’re an early top 5 offense in a ton of important categories (AVG, OBP, wOBA), and lord knows Coors Field loves to enable home runs. This total is still too low; I think we see it get into the teens.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
