Another damn good day in betting. Clippers winning would have been sweet, but we attacked the right angles and we’ve hit 80% of our single bets the last 4 days- not too damn shabby! Onto a big Saturday!
NBA Picks:
- MIN/MEM 1Q over 60.5, 1 unit
- MIN/MEM 1H over 120, 1.5 units
- The full game total is pretty damn high, especially for a playoff game that’s bound to slow down at some point in the 2nd half, as most do, and that’s bound to have some high-pressure moments. These two young teams aren’t tested enough to trust in the final rounds, but it’s more probable to assume that both units will demonstrate the same explosive offense and pace we’ve seen all year in the first half of this contest. Ja Morant has already come out and said, in so many words, that they’re going to ram it down Minnesota’s throat. The front court infiltration will be constant for the Grizzlies, and we know Minnesota can murder teams from beyond the arc. I see a lot of points early – taking both overs.
- Raptors +4.5, 1 unit
- If this goes up, we may take it for more. Toronto has played Philly REALLY well this season, proving that they have the length and tenacity to limit Embiid and slow down Philly’s once-potent offense. The starting 5 for Toronto, which matters more in the postseason, is every bit as talented as the Sixers. Harden is as much a disruptor as he is a talent, and I don’t trust Harris, Thybulle, or Maxey in his reduced role (b/c of Harden) to consistently punch back at a tough, disciplined Raptors team. The hype isn’t fake – Toronto is well-coached, very annoying for opponents on defense, and they have plenty of scoring talent to stay in the game if their defense stumbles (which it rarely has since the all-star break). Don’t be surprised if Toronto takes game 1 and wins this series.
- Nuggets/Warriors under 224, 1.5 units
- We missed the best number on this but I have the total capped at 218, which is still WAY lower. The Warriors will make life very difficult for Denver, who looked exhausted to end the regular season after having to play their starters for way too many minutes down the stretch. Golden State’s defense looked a lot like its former, more refined self in the last few games to end the regular season, and they’ll need to pester Jokic and dare players like Aaron Gorden and Will Barton to force shots. I think they’ll succeed, and veteran players like Draymond Green and Steph Curry (yes, he’ll be back) will show no lack of effort at home. Both of these units are relatively slower paced – I still see plenty of value on the under here.
MLB Picks
- Mets -1.5, 1 unit to win 1.25 units
- Again, this is lined too short. Zac Gallen is a quality pitcher but even with some COVID related crap in the Mets dugout, this is a much better lineup. Carrasco hopes to keep correcting last year’s errors; this is another good setup for NYM.
- Phillies/Marlins under 8, 1.15 units to win 1 unit
- Ranger Suarez came into his own last year, putting out some thrilling performances and proving to be one of the sharper up and coming pitchers in baseball. He started off this year on a sour note – I expect him to respond today. Trevor Rogers is a pitcher we trust and he’s been a stalwart of consistency for Miami. The probabilities that this is a lower scoring contest are high.
- Cubs/Rockies over 12, 2.10 units to win 2
- This is a BIG spot for a Chicago pitcher coming straight out of the minor leagues at Coors Field, and we’ve never trusted Senzatela in these spots. especially at home, where he’s allowed over 1 hit per inning in his career and a high slugging %. This feels like the spot to hit the Coors over angle.
UFC Picks:
- Parlay: Baeza and Omargadzhiev, 1 unit to win 1.79 units
- Neither of these dudes have easy fights, but they’re both elite takedown artists (especially Omar) and the more skilled, versatile fighter in their matchup. Both are up and comers hungry to keep ascending; I expect each of them to win and why not increase our return with a small parlay? I’m on it.
- Belal Muhammad, 1 unit to win 1.46 units
- Vincent Luque deserves to be the favorite and few fighters are as sharp and technically savvy. But Belal as an underdog? I have to take that value. Muhammad has a constancy that’s unrelenting and he’s a takedown machine – for as technical as Luque is, Muhammad’s explosion can catch anyone. Value on the dog here.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
