Well shit, Draymond Green and the Warriors certainly figured out this Nuggets team – really impressive run by them on both offense and defense last night. Raptors, well, again Philly looked like the best version of themselves, even though the constant fouls called in favor of the 76ers are absolutely absurd. Happy our other bets hit and another good day in MLB – onto Tuesday, onto more wins.
NBA Picks:
- Hawks/Heat 1Q under 56, 1.5 units and
- Hawks/Heat full game under 219, 1 unit
- Like we said yesterday, I see no reason why this game would start off “fast.” The Heat and Hawks played at a slow, 97 possession pace in their first contest and like we thought, little to no baskets came easily for Atlanta. Miami is bigger and feistier on the defensive end and even if the Hawks make adjustments, it’s hard to imagine their offense comes out hyper-efficient. One thing bettors tend to ignore is that tough defense on one end tends to bring out tough defense on the other. Expect the Hawks to come out just as aggressive and pesty on defense; this battle will continue and I see it starting off slow. At the most pressurized spots, this slows down and becomes a war – I like it to start and end low-scoring.
- Timberwolves +7, 1 unit
- Yea again, Minnesota just matches up really well against Memphis. The Grizzlies don’t thrive when they decrease their pace and change up their style of basketball, so we think the same tendencies will continue. This will only cultivate the Minnesota offense and help them stay in-rhythm. Grizzlies win at home, but the Timberwolves cover again.
- Suns -9.5, 1.5 units and Pelicans/Suns under 221.5, 1 unit
- Yea the Suns are just a WAY better team, especially at home, and the Pelicans just won’t be able to keep pace with them when they’re in rhythm. Booker and CP3 and then gang are made to annihilate teams like New Orleans, who play slower and rely on half-court sets to methodically win games. Not in Phoenix they won’t. The Pelicans lack of offensive efficiency and slower pace, combined with the Suns’ sensational defense, should slow this game down plenty for an under. I have it at 214 and unfortunately for the Pels, I think the many on-court mismatches reveal themselves again for a big Suns win.
MLB Picks:
- Marlins win, 1.6 units to win 1.5
- Luzardo over the old and crusty Wainwright? Yes. The Cardinals are in the first place in their division off of few impressive wins, but I like what we’re seeing from another Marlins team that’s very solid defensively and has the younger, stronger pitcher today,
- Phillies win, 1.35 units to win 1
- Gibson over Freeland all day, and those Phillies bats are due for some big time positive regression on offense, especially at Coors.
- ATL/LAD: No Run in First Inning, 1.25 units to win 1
- Two aces go head-to-head, ATL’s offense has been ice cold and their defense is due for a better showing. This one starts slow.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
