Morning, people. Frustrating night in more ways than one. Let’s address what’s happening right now and what I’m seeing:
- Don’t be fooled – the Bulls are NOT in the same class as Milwaukee. I promise. This shouldn’t be a goddamn series, but if the Bucks need a kick in the ass, well, they just got it. The Bucks just aren’t in playoff-form yet and they’re showing signs of rust (or perhaps overconfidence). The series moving to Chicago will be interesting, but we’re not off our position just yet. I have the Bucks as 8 points better than Chicago.
- The Nets just can’t get over the hump against Boston. What the Celtics are able to do in the 2nd half, particularly how they clamp down on defense, is insanely impressive. This is the best team in the NBA right now.
- Betting Toronto early was the call and I wish we did it. Good for the 76ers, but I still don’t think this is a series sweep.
Onto the picks – let’s make up for it today. A few folks told me my emails have gone to their JUNK folder – make sure you don’t miss these! If you don’t get my emails before 10 AM ET, something is probably off.
NBA Picks:
- MIN/MEM 1Q over 58.5, 1 unit
- MIN/MEM under 236, 1.5 units
- As we predicted, these games are starting to really slow down late. A full game total of 236 is too rich for the pace we’re seeing at the end, not to mention the margin that these clubs tend to beat each other. Young inexperienced players tend to give up and we saw that from Minnesota in game 2. In the 1st quarter, overs have been easy hits. Even in the last contest, where they opened up only scoring 6 points in the first 3 minutes (typically these squads score about 15 combined points per 3 minutes), the pace and efficiency quickly escalated and we saw a 65 point 1st QTR. Over early, under late.
- Lean, Mavericks +7
- The Jazz are at home and this line is pretty sharp – can’t pull the trigger, but with Luka possibly returning and seeing how hard this Dallas team fights, it’ll be hard to not put something on the Mavericks tonight.
- Warriors -2, 1.5 units
- Yea I’m going to need to see some proof that Denver can keep up with THIS version of Golden State. This is a team that has a ton of momentum right now, which is a big deal in basketball, and should get in-rhythm quickly again. The Nuggets just don’t seem to have the personnel or matchup advantages they need to take control of this game. Lean over, too.
MLB Picks:
- CHW/CLE under 8, 1.05 units to win 1
- The Guardians offense has exploded recently, so naturally we’d expect some regression. Two sure-fire pitchers on the mound should help. Feels like a great spot for an under, especially for a Cleveland team that’s taken advantage of inefficiencies from the White Sox pitchers. Things regress to the mean this afternoon.
- Athletics ML, 2.5 units to win 2
- Alright enough of this bullshit – the A’s love to let inferior teams hang around, but their bats are WAY overdue for a better performance and Paul Blackburn looked phenomenal in his first 2 starts. More depth, at home, off a loss, I expect the Athletics to take this with ease. Hopefully my expectations match Oakland’s attitude today.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
