What’s up team! Finally we get a night we expect, going 4-1 last night in NBA picks. Don’t like today’s NBA slate as much as yesterday’s, so expect less plays.
And that’s okay because, BASEBALL is back! Like I said last night on Twitter, I went 54% (231-199) in MLB last season – not as good as my NFL or NBA marks, but still really good. This is more evidence that we’re quite spoiled on the FarleyBets team – most people would proudly scream and promote their 54% mark. Not me, but I probably should.
Anywho, some of you asked about the Masters. I wish I covered the Masters but I’m not quite there yet (nor do I have the time, honestly) to handicap golf. Here are some accounts I would follow, if you want solid info:
Alright, onto the picks! As you’ll notice, I pretty much dismissed every one of my leans from last night. Oops.
NBA Picks:
- Lean, Raptors: I just love what they’re doing right now.
- Timberwolves TT over 124, 1.5 units
- Last time Minnesota faced San Antonio, they dropped 149 points on the Spurs. And last time the Timberwolves competed, they had a strange, low-output performance against the Wizards. Minnesota still has a shot at the 6th seed if the Nuggets lose their last two (they own the tiebreaker), and that would be a much more advantageous position for them (i.e. avoiding LAC). I expect this to be the last explosive game we see from the Minnesota offense this regular season.
- Pelicans 1H over 60 or less, 1.5 units
- At home, the Pelicans cover at a rate of 69.2% and they’re a top 7 offense since the All Star break. They had their way with Portland in their last contest but not like they probably thought they would. Today we think they will, big time, as they look to continue gaining momentum heading into the postseason. I also like that Valanciunas might be out – he can slow down their offense at times.
- Grizzlies/Nuggets over 232.5, 1 unit
- The most recent iteration of this matchup should be far more indicative of what we see today. In that game, back in January, these two squads combined for 240 points. Today the Nuggets should be fiercely competitive and more efficient on offense, since they hope to lock in the #6 seed. The Grizzlies always try hard and always explode to the rim. Points!
MLB Picks:
- Brewers/Cubs under 10, 1 unit
- It won’t be a pleasant day at Wrigley and although Hendricks certainly isn’t known for his consistency, he has fresh arms and the Cubs don’t want to start the season with another subpar defensive effort (they were one of the worst defenses in MLB last year, 26th in opponent run differential). Cy Young Winner Corbin Burnes will do his part to keep this under, too.
- Padres -1.5, 1 unit
- The Diamondbacks have done next to nothing to improve their squad. I don’t trust Bumgarner and although Darvish hasn’t been consistent on the road, the Padres still own the way better outfit, even with Tatis Jr. on the sidelines. All Padres for this guy.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
