The angle that no one thought would happen, happened — Boston came out inspired and aggressive on the offensive side of the ball, and ultimately that set the pace of the entire game and pushed up the total. Will these totals drop in future games? I think so, but that was interesting to see. Miami seems more than willing to play by the other teams’ rules when their opponent ups the tempo. Something to watch moving forward.
MLB are you fucking kidding me? Know your role, shut your mouth and be normal would ya? Onto the picks- happy hump day peeps!
NBA Picks:
Game 1: Mavericks +5.5, 1.5 units
Mavericks/Warriors 1Q under 53.5 or 54, 1.5 units
These two squads are built very similarly. Dallas has an insane ability to slow down the pace of these games early – we saw that in many of the Suns/Mavs contests and it should work even better against the small-ball offense of Golden State. Plus let’s be honest, the Warriors seem to always start slow and finish great, especially when they’re not extensively motivated. Love the first quarter to start slow and I don’t think either of these defenses will have much issue slowing down the other team. They match up well – Draymond vs. Luka, Brunson vs. Curry, etc. Look to live bet an under if the game starts fast and get used to a lot less points in both of these series. These defenses should thrive, and because we expect slow, defense-oriented games, we can’t not take Dallas after that massively impressive win at Phoenix.
Curry under 27.5 points (-121), 1.5 units
Spencer Dinwiddie over 11.5 points (-121), 1 unit
Curry had a great game 7 but he hasn’t been the same in these playoffs and to his credit, he hasn’t needed to be in superstar mode; not with Poole and others contributing as often as they are. Dinwiddie caught a stride in the final few games of the conference semifinals and we think that carries into today. Dallas will need him to continue stepping up.
Game 2: Heat -4, 1 unit
The Celtics came out looking really impressive in the 1st half of Game 1. Then Jimmy said nut uh and Boston’s clear exhaustion started to set in. Ime Udoka looked shocked to see his team getting out-muscled throughout the contest, and I hate for Boston that Smart and Horford could continue to miss time (Horford especially, COVID, woof). Miami is very comfortable at home and they play extremely tenacious basketball on defense. It was steal-city for a solid 5 minutes of the 3rd QTR and the game felt over after that point. Expect Miami to carry that momentum into game 2 and out-pace Boston again. For now, we’re staying away from the total.
MLB Picks:
MLB Parlay (1 unit to win 3.06 units)
Blue Jays + Rays + Yankees + Dodgers win – superior pitching, most of these teams are at home, and they’re all facing non-playoff teams from last season.
Giants/Rockies under…
JUST KIDDING. No matter what side I play in this game, I’ll probably lose. Coors Field can kiss my white ass, for now…
LA Angels -1.5 (+105), 1 unit
I’ll take Ohtani and an ambitious Angels squad against Dunning all day, plus this feels like a fantastic spot for LAA to get off the short schneid.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
