HEY – a positive day in MLB, what do ya sayyyyy! Gonna shut up and march on; still feeling sharp in the NBA playoffs, but let’s see if we can keep that going. It almost feels fake that we’re hitting at 58% – the playoffs are TUFF.
NBA Picks (60-44, 58%, +11.25 units):
Mavs 1Q -1.5 (-115), 1 unit
Warriors/Mavs 1H under 111.5 (-110), 1.5 units
Mavericks full game -3 (-110), 1.5 units
Well this is the Mavericks’ spot. Golden State came back in admirable fashion in game 2, Steph put on a show, and the Chase Center crowd gave them every boost they needed. But we know how Dallas plays at home – they’re 5-1 ATS on their court and in those 5 games they covered, they covered by an average of 15.4 point margins. That’s astounding. Expect the best effort from the Mavericks and if they’re controlling the game at home, it should go tremendously slow. Staying away from the full game under since Golden State has a knack of pushing the pace when they’re in comeback mode.
Props: Luka over 33.5 points (-113), 1 unit
Spencer Dinwiddie over 10.5 points (-120), 1 unit
Jalen Brunson over 20.5 points (-113), 1.5 units
Brunson is fantastic at home, Dinwiddie will be needed at home against the Warriors small ball lineup, and why wouldn’t Luka put on his best effort/performance at home, too? Luka’s prop is probably the one I like least, that’s a high total, but for God’s sake it’s Luka!
MLB Picks (44-50-1, -9.06 units):
Passing on MLB today. A lot of big favorites who I would “like” to bet on, but if I try another parlay something tells me it won’t happen. Sundays are weird. Here are my leans:
Pirates (+139)
LAD/PHI under 9.5 (-120)
Rays -1.5 (-110)
Marlins (-130)
Astros -1.5 (+105)
Padres/Giants under 7.5 (-120)
