Nice night Tuesday! Brunson decided to stop scoring but our NBA ATS plays went 2-1 and we had a 2-1 night in MLB, too. Ya love to see it.
As we near the end of the NBA season, a friendly reminder to consider future season passes – don’t miss out on this discount! PS: we included a French Open parlay at the end of this email.
NBA Picks:
Heat 1Q +0.5, 1 unit
Full Game under 203.5, 1 unit
This is a really tough game to handicap, but as always we look for patterns of group behavior and I think we found a few. Firstly, the Heat are at their best when they win in the 1st quarter; they’ve won 7/10 of their postseason games when they’re victorious after the first 12 minutes, and that’s not something they’ve practiced well against the Celtics. Boston has led at the end of the 1st quarter in 3/4 contests so far. Miami isn’t built for gigantic comebacks and they know it. Expect Spoelstra to have an attacking game plan from the start of this game. Herro or no Herro, I expect Jimmy Butler, Bam and a crew of starters that only totaled 18 points in game 4 to start off with ruthless aggression. And when the Heat play at their best early, they usually set the tone for the majority of the game. Combined with the nerves and pressure that this game will present, along with the many nagging injuries and the talent of these two defenses, this screams under. I’m only going for a 1 unit win, though. The foul calls have been so disparate (Last 2 games = Boston: 68 FTs, Miami: 28 FTs) that it’s hard to ever feel overly secure in an under play. I do like how they’re guarding Tatum, however, and the up/down nature of Tatum’s developing offensive prowess should lead to a down performance tonight. That shouldn’t hurt the Heat or our under play, that’s for sure.
MLB Picks:
Tigers/Twins over 7.5, 1.1 units to win 1
Both Rony Garcia and Dylan Bundy have a tendency to gift their batters with power opportunities, and while Bundy’s marks should improve, the young Garcia is likely due for some negative regression (4.19 xERA). I have this total at 8.5-9, I’ll take an over.
Dodgers over 5.5 runs (+110), 1 unit
Erick Fedde is allowing way too many walks per 9 innings (4.76), which has been a narrative throughout his 5 year pro career. His proclivity to permit walks is at an all-time high so far this season, and his 4.54 FIP doesn’t exactly give us hope that ol’ Fedde can fend off the bats of the Dodgers, who from what I’m seeing, seem awfully cozy smackin’ balls in the nation’s capital.
Brewers/Padres under 7.5 (-120), 1.2 units to win 1
Ashby and Darvish both got annihilated by Atlanta’s lineup in recent starts, but overall they’ve both been extremely efficient the past month. Ashby is particularly skilled at preventing big hits (0.64 HR/9 innings), though he’s allowed way too many walks. As long as neither gets exposed early, each thrower should be able to carry their team into later innings against two formidable bullpens.
French Open- We’ve been hitting parlays on big favorites early in the French Open. Here’s the one I like for tomorrow morning, March 26:
Moneyline Parlay – 1 unit to win 2 unit – (Men’s) Ruud + Medvedev + Kecmanovic + (Women’s) + Kudermetova + Pliskova
