Premiums, 5.26

2-0 in the NBA is nice, though. Today’s game is hard.

I found a few angles to consider betting tonight; I just don’t feel very confident in any of them as single plays. But I do like the above parlay. Firstly, the fact that Golden State is rightly predicted to win this game by some margin means that the tempo and production will be set by the home-team Warriors. In other words, Dallas will likely play catch-up throughout this contest. That being said, I’m not overly confident that Golden State can blow them out. Once the Mavericks find a rhythm they tend to keep it – just look at what they did in multiple elimination games against the Suns. So I think this game could be closer than people realize. What the Warriors have been consistent at is getting off to a hot start after they blow one of those road games where they could’ve ended the series. The Dubs defeated Denver and Memphis by margins of 4-5 points in the 1Q of those next games. Steph Curry sounded LOCKED in in his post game conference after their last defeat, admitting that they need more urgency in these situations. That’s especially true at the start of a game. I think the total is still too high – these two talented defenses (and the Mavericks slow pace) in a crucial game should be tenacious from the jump, and so far only one 1Q has eclipsed that mark, which was much more due to an absurd Dallas’ shooting start in game 2. The average total 1Q score: just over 50 ppg. Let’s get a parlay and get the hell out of dodge!

I’m gonna keep believing in Nestor Cortes – he’s been sensational – and love em or hate em, these Yankee-hitters are a top 5 offense for a reason. I don’t think Tampa can hang early if Nestor continues his rampage.

The Braves lineup has settled in at home and Nola hasn’t found his groove just yet. I love ATL to keep sluggin’ and winnin’ on their turf.