I’m taking it easy in the NBA today – I would rather watch and see what happens between Dallas and Phoenix; I think Dallas will really step up in this game but I can’t say I’m too confident in that right now. And the Heat/Sixers line is awfully sharp. We have one bet in the association but I’m turning more towards MLB today. Onto the picks:
NBA Picks:
76ers/Heat over 207, 1.5 units
This line is getting a little too low. The Heat are taking advantage of every single steal with a transition bucket (literally 100% conversion rate in game 1), and both teams were down in their overall shooting marks. Of course a lot of that can be attributed to Miami’s stellar defense and Philly’s above-average defense, but I still expect regression. On top of that, while it won’t always show in stats, the Heat ran with real pace in game 1 for most of that contest – only slowing down significantly when they had the lead. If I had to pick a side, I’d lean Philly in a crucial game 2 to cover. I have it at 211. Maybe we middle if the total rises.
MLB Picks:
Mets ML, 1.35 units to win 1
How good do the Mets look these days? They’ll have the better pitcher by a long shot today and Atlanta is probably pretty excited to get the hell out of this series. I think NYM sweeps the champs.
Pirates (game 1) first 5 +0.5, 1.2 units to win 1
Dillon Peters has looked sensational in 13 innings this season and although Detroit has batted well against lefties, they’re probably way overdue for regression. Taking a shot on Pitt and one of their only hopes in Peters.
Astros -1.5, 1 unit to win 1.1 (+110)
The Astros are flexing at home against a burgeoning Seattle team, momentum is a thing, and now they’re sending Verlander to the mound against Brash? Night night, Seattle.
Brewers -1.5, 1.25 units to win 1
The Brewers are in a flow-state right now and although Peralta hasn’t found a rhythm yet, this isn’t a bad spot for the 25 year old to find it. I trust Milwaukee’s bats and bullpen considerably more, too.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
