We’re reminded of how annoying baseball can be in the Pittsburgh game – the Pirates led 2-0 heading into the 5th and Detroit scored their only 3 runs in the bottom of the same inning, destroying our wager. Hate to see it, but this is the variance and absurdity of sports betting sometimes, especially in MLB.
Pretty glad we avoided the Mavs/Suns game last night. Onto today’s MLB plays and some future NBA plays, and lookout for our UFC plays tomorrow! AWESOME card Saturday night!
NBA Picks:
Heat ML (-105), 2 units
We’ve been gifted a line like this on Miami? Sounds good! If Embiid returns, he’ll be a cautious version of himself. I mean literally his eyeball could fall out of its socket. And do we really think the Heat will try to protect him or take it easy on him in a playoff game? Na. I love the dynamism of what the Heat are doing right now; they can beat you in so many ways, and the resurgence of Oladipo makes this team even more dangerous. I love Miami to go up 3-0.
Mavericks 1H ML, 1.5 units (juice not out yet but should be around a pick-em)
We saw the Mavericks play well and as a team in the first 24 minutes last night; then Phoenix took over and made Luka try to do it all. Brunson and Dinwiddie have been really disappointing in the first two games, and as brilliant as Luka is, he can’t do this alone against a great team like the Suns. I think we see a more complete version of the Mavericks at home to start off this game. Still don’t know if I trust them to win in the end.
Bucks 1Q, 1H, and full game ML (Saturday), all 1.5 units each
Oh yea, we’re going to town on Milwaukee Saturday! The Celtics are a VERY legitimate team and cannot be taken lightly, but historically these are the spots where the Bucks like to clobber teams; at home after a loss. The Bucks are 27-13 SU as a home favorite, 21-11 SU after a loss, and 29-15 SU as a home team. Fiserv Forum will be loud, and Milwaukee’s defense won’t perform at the same level they did on Tuesday (aka we’ll see a much better version). Giannis props are probably a good idea, too. To be clear, these are 3 different bets, all moneyline, all Bucks, all 1.5 units each. Let’s fucking go!
MLB Picks:
Nats/Rockies over 11, 1.1 units to win 1
Game two presented a nice little pitching duel and a relatively low-scoring game at Coors Field; not today. Aaron Sanchez is off to a cold start (6.75 ERA) and Senzatela (3.66 ERA) is a little too inconsistent to trust against a Washington lineup that can still SHWING it. We think this goes way over the total.
Orioles first 5 ML (+120), 1 unit
In limited innings Chris Archer has looked above average so far this season, but we think that’ll change today. The Orioles are the Orioles and they’re not winning any titles this year but by our estimation, they’re far from the worst offense. They’re 12th overall in BABIP and they have enough power to greatly improve their slugging % and HR rates. Spenser Watkins has impressed us from the start of his pro career and he’s shown considerably better command early this season. I like Baltimore to get ahead early.
Marlins/Padres over 7 (EVEN), 1 unit
What am I missing here? This line feels way too low for two pitchers who are inconsistent at best and two teams who had high bullpen usage in their last contest. Just going by the numbers here, this is an auto-bet on a total that we think is just wrong.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
