The NBA is back after yet another anti-climactic day of MLB betting. Before we get into the picks, allow me to defend the ol’ Dallas Mavericks and our previous takes: if the Suns were THAT much better than the Mavs, this line would not be a pick-em today, period. I wouldn’t be surprised if Phoenix still dominated or even ultimately swept Dallas, but it’s nice to see the books give them some respect at home. Let’s watch it closely and see if it moves; I’m guessing the Suns will get more love before tipoff. The first half bet on Dallas was less juiced yesterday, (we grabbed a -115), but we’ll put it at -120 for fairness to all, in case you got it more inflated. If you didn’t get it yet, you may want to wait for a better number. The totals have dropped considerably, which is also a good sign for us and our bet on Dallas – the books anticipate a slower-paced game; which implies that Dallas will control the tempo.
Onto the picks!
NBA Picks:
Heat ML (-105), 2 units
This is the ML from yesterday, so it’s nice to see that we got 3 points of closing line value here (most books have the Heat at -3). If Embiid returns, he’ll be a cautious version of himself. I mean literally his eyeball could fall out of its socket. And do we really think the Heat will try to protect him or take it easy on him in a playoff game? Na. I love the dynamism of what the Heat are doing right now; they can beat you in so many ways, and the resurgence of Oladipo makes this team even more dangerous.
I love Miami to go up 3-0.
Mavericks 1H ML (-120), 1.5 units
We saw the Mavericks play well and as a team in the first 24 minutes Wednesday; then Phoenix took over and made Luka try to do it all. Brunson and Dinwiddie have been really disappointing in the first two games, and as brilliant as Luka is, he can’t do this alone against a great team like the Suns. I think we see a more complete version of the Mavericks at home to start off this game. Still don’t know if I trust them to win in the end.
Bucks 1Q ML (-130), 1.5 units and
Bucks 1H ML (-125), 1.5 units and
Bucks full game ML (-135), 1.5 units each
Oh yea, we’re going to town on Milwaukee Saturday! The Celtics are a VERY legitimate team and cannot be taken lightly, but historically these are the spots where the Bucks like to clobber teams; at home after a loss. The Bucks are 27-13 SU as a home favorite, 21-11 SU after a loss, and 29-15 SU as a home team. Fiserv Forum will be loud, and Milwaukee’s defense won’t perform at the same level they did on Tuesday (aka we’ll see a much better version). Giannis props are probably a good idea, too. To be clear, these are 3 different bets, all moneyline, all Bucks, all 1.5 units each. Let’s fucking go!
MLB Picks:
Lean, Pirates ML
Not much to say here, I just think it’s hilarious that the Pirates are favored over the Reds at home. That’s how bad Cincinnati has been. Yikes.
Mariners -1.5 (+170), 1 unit
Alright it’s time for Seattle’s losing streak to end. Logan Gilbert has been sensational over 28 innings to start the season and the Mariners typically show their best selves at home. I think they put it together and win by margin against a solid but tired Rays squad.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
