Well shit, somehow we still went 2-1 in MLB last night (let’s go Yankees) and we’re 6-3 for +3.15 units the last 4 days in MLB. I almost don’t wanna say that shit because if there’s ever been a possibility I could jinx myself, it’s in the crazy ass majors. Onto our picks!
NBA Finals, Game 4:
1Q under 54.5, 1.5 units*
Under 214.5, 2 units
* Added the 1Q under, too. This game just has a different feel. Every contest in the NBA Finals is important, duh, but the Warriors need to come out with ruthless aggression and prevent the onslaught of offense that’s always possible from Boston. I doubt either offense gets in a rhythm that early.
The pace was ridiculous in game three and there’s just no way, IMO, that it can keep up. Game four should be extremely contentious and physical, especially after Draymond’s exit and how horrendous the Warriors protected the rim. As usual, they’ll correct some of those wrongs and this game will probably be a lot closer, with one asterisk. If Curry is substantially injured*, as I noted on Twitter, this series is absolutely over. As even as these two teams are, Curry is so integral for Golden State’s offensive success and they just won’t be able to produce the same results without a Steph Curry that’s at least 90%. Because of his injury and due to our expectation that pace and offensive production will decrease, this feels like a sure-fire over. I have it at 201.
MLB Picks:
D-Backs First 5 ML (-110), to win 1
Zac Gallen’s numbers speak for themselves, with a whip of 0.96 and maintaining a 2.40 ERA in over 50 innings pitched. The Philadelphia bats have been hot but they’re due for a letdown here, and Gibson looks like he’s starting to lose command. Good value on a much better pitcher.
Brewers -1.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Milwaukee is in a real funk at home, so in my mind they’re fortunate to get the hell out of dodge and head to DC against a team that’s about as trustworthy as a Clinton trusted with an intern. Ashby is underrated and certainly capable; Fedde not so much.
Rangers/White Sox over 9 (-105), to win 1 unit
The White Sox were feeling fat and sassy after they took a huge lead against LAD yesterday, only to sacrifice that lead late. That’s Dodgers baseball for ya. Now the Rangers and Sox send out two undependable pitchers against two good offenses. Points!
Padres -2.5 (+135), to win 1.35 units
This is a bad matchup for a road-team Colorado offense that struggles against the Padres’ most trusted pitcher. San Diego is feeling themselves lately – alt line feels right here.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
