Well of course I couldn’t stay off Twitter and I sounded off about the 1Q under loss – that was a brutal, brutal beat. But overall how can we complain? Still a winning overall night, in both NBA and MLB, and we’re doing well in these NBA Playoffs. Onto the next!
NBA Finals, Game 5:
Celtics 1Q +0.5, 1 unit
First Half over 103, 1 unit
Full Game under 212, 1.5 units
A lot to unpack here. Firstly, the roller-coaster-like nature of this series is forcing my hand a bit. Maybe we’re wrong, but even though the next game is at the Chase Center, I can only expect a professional and solid response from the Celtics. We’ve seen it time and time again – they thrive responding, especially on the road as dogs, and I like them early in this one. Although I think it’s VERY possible that the Warriors win (the line indicates they should), I would actually lean towards Boston to cover. Like Curry at the end of Game 4, the Celtics’ stars will push their wills at the end of this game in all likelihood.
As far as the totals go, I like our plays as a hedge but they’re also conducive to our narrative. Boston should come out very aggressive, which tends to push the Warriors’ pace, and Golden State’s offense is actually due for positive regression. Aside from Curry and Wiggins, the other contributors (lord knows, DRAYMOND) were not very effective offensively. I love points early but in such a contentious game, gotta love the full game under, too.
MLB Picks (I don’t love the board today, a lot of even or lopsided matchups):
Rays (-140), to win 1 unit
Young Shane Baz has prodigy potential as a major league pitcher and today he’ll oppose Chi Chi Gonzalez, who’s never been great and started off this season looking as vulnerable as ever. An alt-line on Tampa may not be a bad idea here, either.
Parlay- Yankees/Blue Jays/Padres in Game 2: 1 unit to win 1.96 units
UFC 275 Picks:
Taila Santos Wins Within Distance (+1000), 1 unit
Let’s take a shot! Arguably no fighter in the UFC, male or female, is more talented or skilled than Valentina, but Santos is as tough as it gets. She also has the height and reach advantage in this matchup. At 19-1 and with many in-fight stoppage wins, I’m absolutely putting a unit on Taila to get the big upset. Eventually, like any hall of famer, Valentina’s chances of “getting caught” are on the rise. Perfection is not a thing that any of us can fully achieve – pull it off, Santos!
Jiri Prochazka Wins Within Distance (-165), to win 1 unit
Glover Teixeira is the champion for a reason and no doubt he’s a bonafide martial arts genius. He has so many tools he can beat you with and he’s the superior grapper in this fight, no doubt. But Jiri has a relentlessness and force about his striking, along with his pure size and athleticism advantage, that gives me literally no choice but to take this bet. There’s probably more value on Glover (duh, plus money), but it feels like the time is now for Glover to get overwhelmed by a younger, hungrier beast.
Lean, Joanna Jedrzejczyk (+136)
Unfortunately there’s not a ton of value in this fight, and it’s likely to go the distance but that’s mega juiced too. I just can’t see the electric Joanna give up two fights to Zhang. She’s too good.
Parlay- Allen, Choi, Prochazka: 1 unit to win 1.77 units
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
