Happy New Week, people! Nothing like an 0-3 Sunday to kick ya in the ass and get me even more motivated for a better week. I added another play on the 1Q in support of Boston since the line is now up to +1 – we’ll take it.
I’m also going to try and incorporate more foreign basketball plays, and I’ll be more and more judicious with our MLB plays. While I’m confident we’ll settle in and win more overall in baseball, it’s still a good idea to pull back right now and find opportunities elsewhere until that happens. It’ll likely result in more overall ROI over the summer, too, at least before the good ol’ NFL season begins, which brings more value to those of you who remain subscribed to my picks. Certainly makes re-subscribing more attractive! Onto the picks!
NBA Finals, Game 5:
Celtics 1Q +0.5, 1 unit
Celtics 1Q +1, 1 unit *
First Half over 103, 1 unit
Full Game under 212, 1.5 units
A lot to unpack here. Firstly, the roller-coaster-like nature of this series is forcing my hand a bit. Maybe we’re wrong, but even though the next game is at the Chase Center, I can only expect a professional and solid response from the Celtics. We’ve seen it time and time again – they thrive responding, especially on the road as dogs, and I like them early in this one. Although I think it’s VERY possible that the Warriors win (the line indicates they should), I would actually lean towards Boston to cover. Like Curry at the end of Game 4, the Celtics’ stars will push their wills at the end of this game in all likelihood.
As far as the totals go, I like our plays as a hedge but they’re also conducive to our narrative. Boston should come out very aggressive, which tends to push the Warriors’ pace, and Golden State’s offense is actually due for positive regression. Aside from Curry and Wiggins, the other contributors (lord knows, DRAYMOND) were not very effective offensively. I love points early but in such a contentious game, gotta love the full game under, too.
MLB Picks:
Braves -1.5 (+105), 1 unit
Atlanta lost their opening series against the Nationals very early in the season, but me thinks that won’t happen this go-round. Ian Anderson’s 3.78 xERA projects that he’ll settle into his command and show more consistency as the season goes on. Atlanta is on a tear, winning 11 straight heading to DC, and while this could be a letdown spot, we like the revenge angle and how can we trust the Nationals at this juncture? Braves by margin.
Marlins/Phillies under 7.5, 1 unit
Nola is starting to look in prime form again and although both of these units are top 10 in overs this season, this total is low for a reason. Alcantara has one of the best ERAs in baseball and his profile is perfect for a team like Philly – he limits HRs (0.43/9 innings) and he uses his 97 mph fastball confidently and without hesitation. I smell an under!
Foreign Basketball Picks:
Alba Berlin +5.5, 1 unit and
Alba Berlin vs. Bayern Munich over 158, 1 unit
This is another rematch between two of the best teams in the German pro league and we got pretty lucky that the last game didn’t go over. Scoring REALLY slowed down in the 4th but live lines had this game projected to finish around 165. We think it gets closer to that total today and Alba Berlin, while they won last time and they’re on the road today, is still the better team. +5.5 is a little too many points.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
