A lighter day for me overall with the NBA Finals back and not a ton of value, IMO, in baseball. Sharing some early NFL lines I like and a few NBA Props, though. I can’t WAIT to start getting into NFL futures and prepping for the season. Enjoy and LFG!
Early NFL Lines We Like:
Bills/Rams over 52.5 (this will only rise)
Steelers +6 (the disrespect!)
Texans +8 (home DAWG)
NBA Finals, Game 6:
Celtics 1H -2, 1.5 units
Full Game over 210, 1.5 units
Well, here I go playing on the Celtics again. Are we stupid? Maybe. But Golden State has been consistently flawed on the road when they can close out a series, and you’d think the Celtics would light many a fire under their collective asses before game 6 so they don’t see the same results as Monday. Again, the aggressiveness I expected in game 5 just didn’t happen, but that doesn’t mean Boston is done. Ime Udoka has his kids fighting and clawing and playing resiliently all year. I think Boston takes it early by margin – don’t be surprised when that title wave of scoring comes from Dub City in the 3rd, though. If the Celtics start slow and let Golden State take another big early lead, this series is over and they know it.
Added the total over for the many reasons we stated on the podcast. Curry never hit a 3 in game five, the Celtics struggled mightily from the field, and the pace and pressure of each team’s aggressive offense still led Monday’s contest to nearly 200 points. Even with slight adjustments and improvement in game six, I would expect this total to eclipse 210 – I have it at 216.
Props We Like:
Horford over 9.5 points (he’s due)
Curry over 4.5 threes (for obvious reasons)
MLB Picks:
Red Sox/Padres parlay, 1 unit to win 1.45 units
Long-time veteran Rich Hill has been steady as usual this season and Oakland can’t get hits/runs to save their lives. The Athletics are also one of the worst offenses against lefties, hitting .221 against southpaws. The Padres are streaking and what’s to like about the Cubs lately? Not much of anything, especially against Musgrove.
Guardians/Rockies over 11.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
Chad Kuhl is starting to regress in all the wrong ways and that’s not a great thing at Coors, where he’s already allowing a few too many slugs. Triston McKenzie is the same pitcher he’s always been – stellar potential but rarely elite – this is not a great spot for him after the Rockies’ bats warmed up last night and finally put up some points. Colorado is a live dog in this one and I like the over.
