Premiums, 6.17 thru 6.19

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Hey All! A lot to unpack!

  1. We had a cold finish to the NBA season and I sure as hell wish I bet on the Warriors as much as I touted and supported them via articles and podcasts. Lesson learned – we listened too much to others’ BS. In any case…
  2. It was a season where we hit at 56% and won over 80 units overall. We’re very happy about this result and very thankful for all of your support! Please know how much you mean to me and how grateful I am for all of the verbal affirmations throughout the last year. Means the world to me.
  3. Now starts the long summer road of NFL prep while attempting to pick apart MLB. We’ll continue betting foreign basketball, UFC, and Tennis, too.
I’ll be at a remote fishing cabin starting today through Sunday afternoon, so all of my picks for the weekend are in this email. I’ll try to check Twitter and email but I’ll have VERY little internet connection where I am. Enjoy your weekend!
MLB Picks:
 
June 17th 
Parlay: Braves + Giants, 1 unit to win 1.33 units
Prime spots for Morton and Rodon, vastly superior pitchers, on the road against two young, able, but pitchers unlikely to show a steady command.
 
Yankees/Jays over 9.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
We like tomorrow’s game to go under and I’d like it even more if we see an explosion of points in this contest today, which I expect. Two hittable throwers are on the mound today and both Toronto and NYY just had uninspiring offensive performances yesterday. Cue the sound of wood smacking balls!
 
Twins (-130), 1.3 units to win 1
Smeltzer has been sensational, Bumgarner is solid but obviously aging, and I trust the Twins offense, although they’ve been inconsistent lately, to find an early groove in this series.
June 18
Yankees/Jays under anything 8 or more, 1 unit
Two of their best pitchers take the mound Saturday and is it me or is Manoah getting better? This is a great spot for him to show some grit at home and a good next-day under after we expect big slugs on Friday.
 
Brewers/Reds under anything 7.5 or more, 1 unit
The Brewers should be participating in WAY more under than over games, but their pitching hasn’t held up like expected. This is a good series to get into a better flow-state against a rising young stud in Ashcraft and a pedestrian offense in Cincinnati.
 
Dodgers -1.5, 1.5 units
Statement game for the home-team Dodgers against an ascending team in Cleveland who isn’t quite ready for this smoke. Especially not with Cal on the mound. Urias could go 7 innings.
 
UFC Picks:
 
Yanez within Distance (+120), 1 unit
Considerably more talented on his feet, a KO finish pays the same price as a win within distance so we’ll go with the latter. This shouldn’t be close.
 
Jasinavicius via Decision (-125), 1 unit
Jasmine is the by far the superior wrestler, even though Silva loves an armbar and could get a sneaky win. I’ll go with the probability (at a good price) that Jasmine gets it done and wins by points, as most ladies’ fights do.
Kattar within Distance (+175), 1.5 units to win 2.32 units
I respect the hell out of Josh Emmett and the kind of KO power he brings, but Kattar is (by far, in our opinion) the more technical and tenacious striker. Both of these guys want to end it early – Kattar has more in his toolchest to make it happen.
 
NHL Picks:
 
Lightning/Avalanche over 6, 1.5 units
What am I stupid? These defenses will have to prove us all wrong and until they do, I’m betting overs. Two great offenses showed out in game 1 and we love that pace heading into a redemption game for TB – they usually rely on their superior scorers in these situations.
 
Foreign Basketball Picks (2-3, -1.3 units):
(Germany, June 17) 
Alba Berlin -6 (-105), 1 unit
Game over 156, 1 unit
These two love to go back and forth and after a pathetic showing from Bayern Munich on offense, we can only expect more points. I also have to play on Alba Berlin, who’s clearly the better overall team and now we’re getting deflated juice to take them at home. Gladly.
 
Spain (June 17)
Real Madrid BC (-154), 1 unit
Real Madrid BC is clearly the better unit but I don’t have faith in my analysis just yet to take them at -3. I’ll go with a ML play like we’re betting MLB.