Premiums, 6.28

These two pitchers dueled just 5 days ago in a sleepy 1-0 win for Minnesota, but Smeltzer is way more efficient at home, with an ERA of 4.87 on the road compared to a 1.50 ERA at Minnesota. Plesac has been solid at home and he’s due for some betting outings. One horrendous game against Oakland inflated his stats. Guardians desperately need a win today and this is a great setup for it.

There’s a lot to like about what Zack Wheeler is doing these days. His last start got silly on the road against a feisty Rangers squad, but he should settle in today back at home knowing he’ll have to show exceptional command against an ace like Charlie Morton. Morton has been a workhorse for Atlanta, pitching 20 innings the last 3 games, and he was blasted in his last start at Philadelphia, allowing 9 hits and 4 runs in just 4 innings. I like Wheeler to have the advantage and the Phils to gain an early lead.

Live Bet NYY – I put a live bet on the Yankees when they were down 5-2 last night and it’s probably a great way to approach their series with Oakland. The A’s can’t score, so when they do, expect regression and expect those Yankees’ bats to do what they do best: dominate.

Carrasco’s marks are better than advertised and this is another tough series for Houston, who survived by tying the Yankees the last 4 days but lord knows it wasn’t easy. Valdez did a great job against NYY last week but the Mets are back home and happy to be out of the snooze fest series in Miami. Houston also bested NYM in two straight games at Minute Maid Park – time for some vengeance.

All these two pitchers do is give low-scoring contests when they duel and this one should be no different. Both throwers kept their opponent well under the total in the last two outings and Gallen in particular is even more commanding at home. Love the under.