What’s up guys! Let’s get some wins today – like a LOT of UFC, too!
NBA Finals, Game 2:
Parlay: Warriors ML win + Over 215.5, 1 unit to win 1.94 units
Over 215.5, 1 unit
Celtics 1H +3, 1 unit
Lean Warriors -4
Defenses tend to not settle into these long series until later in the contest. Nerves, pressure, and physicality increase as the series goes on, too. We may consider some unders later but for now, I still really like the over. Golden State and Boston are A-okay pushing the pace and both are extremely efficient in transition offense. As the series goes on, we should expect significant regression from beyond the arc, too. Both teams had exceptional shooting nights from the perimeter, but I favor GS to win and I lean the full game -4 because I don’t think Boston can sustain that kind of 3-point success. I mean, Smart/Horford/White went 15/23 from beyond the arc – that’s insane. Golden state rallies, points are scored, but they won’t get there until the 3rd QTR (as usual). Taking Boston early; giving 3 points to the Celtics feels criminal.
MLB Picks:
Yankees -2.5 (-105), 1 unit
Okay but for real this time. These matchups are so lopsided it’s ridiculous. Expect the Yankees to continue their beat down on Detroit.
Rockies (+148), 1 unit
The Rockies are the best offense in MLB at home and they’re way overdue for a big hitting night. If Freeland can “hold the door,” the young Spencer Strider is unlikely to contain the Colorado lineup.
Parlay Phillies and Dodgers, 1 unit to win
Somewhat predictably, the resurgent Phillies are winning after Girardi was fired and now they send their ace to the mound against the Angels, who couldn’t be struggling any more. The Dodgers are out-classing and punking the Mets at home and now they send Buehler out for the final nail in the coffin.
UFC Picks:
Zhumagulov (+155), 1 unit
This line is just wrong. Molina is a good all-around fighter and has the better gas tank, but Zhumagulov is more explosive and has a significant takedown advantage.
Saint Denis within Distance (+150), 1 unit
The former French Special Forces veteran is as aggressive as it gets and although his octagon IQ can be faulty, his push should overwhelm Stolze early.
Mozharov (+200), 1 unit
There’s a lot of media attention about Mozharov’s hidden records or whatever the hell is going on, but what’s getting overshadowed is how much he’s improved and how impressive he’s looked in recent fights. The motivation will be there, too, to silence his doubters. Worth the value.
Rozenstruik by KO, TKO, or DQ (+175), 1 unit
Volkov will pick you apart with his length and kicks but Rozenstruik, who has only fallen to the best of the best, can easily outpower and KO Volkov if he leans in too often, which he tends to do once he gets comfortable.
