Go Yankees! Probably should have put a higher unit bet on them yesterday. Avoiding them today and treading cautiously again as we embrace the return of the NBA Finals.
NBA Finals, Game 2 (one added):
Parlay: Warriors ML win + Over 215.5, 1 unit to win 1.94 units
Over 215.5, 1 unit
Celtics 1H +3, 1 unit
Warriors 1Q -1.5, 1.5 units
Lean Warriors -4
Defenses tend to not settle into these long series until later in the contest. Nerves, pressure, and physicality increase as the series goes on, too. We may consider some unders later but for now, I still really like the over. Golden State and Boston are A-okay pushing the pace and both are extremely efficient in transition offense. As the series goes on, we should expect significant regression from beyond the arc, too. Both teams had exceptional shooting nights from the perimeter, but I favor GS to win and I lean the full game -4 because I don’t think Boston can sustain that kind of 3-point success. I mean, Smart/Horford/White went 15/23 from beyond the arc – that’s insane. Golden state rallies, points are scored, but they won’t get there until the 3rd QTR (as usual). Taking Boston early; giving 3 points to the Celtics feels criminal.
The 1st quarter play added is for two reasons – we’re getting a better line now, leading by 2 is very achievable, and the first 12 minutes at home is probably the area where Golden State responds after that horrendous 4th quarter. Teams use things like that for motivation all the time and this is a marquee example.
MLB Picks:
Pirates under 3 runs (+105), 1 unit
Gallen is elite and is due for positive regression after two tough starts. One of the worst offenses in MLB (if not the worst worst) should be stifled today.
Phillies (-125), 1.5 units
Gonna keep playing on this Phillies’ heater while it lasts and Gibson’s had a steady hand.
I have a personal play on the TB Lightning (-1.5) tonight at home. Love what the Rangers are doing but this is probably the spot.
