Nice to see some wins at the end of the day but good lord, it’s been bad-beat city in the MLB and the Twins starting off our day in that fashion was rather infuriating.
From now through July 4, these premium emails will be more shallow than usual. Less descriptions in general. I’d apologize but I really haven’t taken off for a year+ so I need to take a little break, a semi-break at least, on this long holiday weekend.
Enjoy the 4th with friends, family, food and fireworks! Onto our plays today:
MLB Picks: Lots of big favorites on the board in good spots and therefore, not a ton of value. Let’s see what we can find.
Cardinals/Phillies over 9.5 (even), 1 unit
Mikolas has been badass and Falter has potential but them Philly bats are hot and STL is one of the most underrated offenses in MLB. Momentum = over.
Yankees/Astros ML Parlay; 1 unit to win 1.32
Superior pitchers, Houston at home, and I have a hard time ever picturing the Guardians’ bats keeping up with Cole and the Yankees.
Dodgers -1.5 (+130), 1 unit
Snell, if he ever returns to form, is due positive regression and still has the tools to stop even the best lineups (LAD). But I can’t believe in that. Dude has allowed 24 hits and 16 runs in his last 20 innings, and here comes ace Gonsolin. LAD by margin.
Wimbledon Picks:
Sakkari/Maria over 20, to win 1 unit
Kerber/Tommy Paul Parlay; 1 unit to win 1 unit
UFC 276 Picks:
Jessica Eye (+235), to win 2.35 units
Maycee Barber is kinda cute and so I’ve cheered for her in the past but she’s been prone to some very disappointing results, despite her potential. Jessica Eye is an old wily veteran and she’s as tough as they come, and although she’s lost lately, her opponent have been high quality. Value on a very capable dog. Including Maycee on some parlays as a hedge wouldn’t be a bad idea.
Pedro Munhoz (+235), to win 2.35 units
Munhoz isn’t intimidated in the slightest with O’Malley and this is big Sean’s first real test. Munhoz is a high-IQ fighter who’s, by far, the superior takedown artist. He can’t stand toe-to-toe with O’Malley but he also knows that. His recent losses, like Eye above, have been only to superior opponents.
Strickland/Volkanovski/Adesanya Parlay; 1 unit to win 2.3 units
Strickland is a potential start in the making with a big voice and a versatile game. Volkanovski is facing a hall of famer but make no mistake about it, the champ is as professional and elite as it gets. And he’s a brick shithouse – just doesn’t go down. Can’t see him losing. And Israel is, well, Israel.
Jared Cannonier (+355), to win 3.55 units
You might wanna wait to bet this as I imagine it’ll only get more inflated, but this is another nice hedge to the above. Cannonier deserves this spot and he’s a grown-ass man akin to the way Jan Blachowicz fights. Power, patience, high IQ, and great athleticism. It’s worth a play.
CFL Picks:
Edmonton Elks +7.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Two teams without a win thus far in this short season and we’re being given the hook. Both are desperate – this should be closer than advertised.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
